Well, now that the depth guys have cooled off a bit, the fact that Jarome has become Jarmoe is definitely influencing the Flames record to the bad. Before proceeding, perhaps I should firmly establish that Iginla is indeed having an off-year, since the guy is still inside the top 10 scorers in the league.
First, the recent struggles. Iginla has all of 2 goals in 2009. That's 19 games. He is currently on pace for 30 goals, his lowest total since 1999 (!). He has two points in his last five games and is a -5 five over that span.
What's more significant is the fact that Iginla isn't a difference-maker at ES this season. Here are his pertinent underlying 5-on-5 stats from last year and this one, just for the sake of comparison:
07/08: 2.85 ESP/60, 3.68 GFON/60, 2.21 GAON/60, +32 (!)
08/09: 2.16 ESP/60, 3.17 GFON/60, 2.88 GA/60, +4
Iginla is less efficient at producing points this season and more apt to get scored on. In 07/08, he scored the most ES points in the Western conference (65) and was third overall in the NHL by that measure ahead of guys like Joe Thornton and Pavel Datsyuk. This year, he's tied for 17th in the league with Travis Zajac and Rene Bourque. The difference between his ES ice time from the two seasons is nominal as well, with him averaging just 30 seconds more/game last year over this one.
What's more, Iginla is actually less effective on the PP this year as well. His previous PPP/60 rate was a team best 5.37. This year? 4.74. In addition, he doesn't appear to be the engine driving success with the man advantage anymore either: Iginla's GFON-GFOFF differential was +5.31 in 07/08, which has shrank to just +1.91 this season. The be fair, that has a lot to do with the team's improvement (the 2nd unit actually scores sometimes this year), but it still highlights the fact that his GFON rate has fallen by nearly 1 full point per hour (7.69 versus 6.77).
It's not just that the performance is there but the results are lacking. Jarome has looked ineffective by my eye for a large portion of year. Aside from the occasional bitch-slapping of a weak sister, Iginla's game has been a lot of frustration and perimeter play. He can't seem to bear down on chances like he has previously and his shots are all too frequently wide, blocked or easily stopped (accounting for his 0.57/game drop in shots on net). Iginla's board work and puck possession has really fallen by the way-side by my eye as well: separating Iginla from the biscuit used to be a herculean task, reserved for only the best checkers and defenseman on the other team. Now, Iginla loses puck battles and races more often than not. For my money, Rene Bourque, Curtis Glencross and David Moss have been superior to Jarome along the boards and down low in the offensive zone in terms of winning possession.
So what are the choices here in terms of explanations? "Lost-a-step", injury or circumstances...
The first possibility I dismiss immediately. The difference between 30 and 31 is marginal and he is the best conditioned athlete on the club by all accounts. And it's not like Iginla is sitting fat-and-sassy at home, enjoying his $7M pay-cheque and yawning at reports of his ineffectiveness - the guy isn't Alexi Yashin. He's roundly considered one of the most competitive players and best leaders by his peers.
The second option is possible I suppose, although one wonders what kind of ailment effects players in such a manner that a.) it sticks around all year, b.) they miss 0 games and play 20+ minutes per night anyways and c.) it only hampers performance against good teams.
Which leaves us with circumstances. What's different between this season and last? Linemates and competition.
Let's see who Iginla played with during 07/08 (via this site):
Now, from this season:
Let's look at the relative contributions of each unit at ES as well.
O7/08:
08/09:
By "frequency" I assume the site means "minutes", so let's standardize each unit's production so we can compare apples to apples here. I'll just apply the typical /60 correction we're all used to. Also, it looks like the production is just a "goal/line" type stat, meaning if a trio manages a goal, the site scores that as "1", rather than collecting all the points of the players in question for each event (goals, assists).
07/08:
Iginla/Langkow/Huselius - 0.65 goals/60
Iginla/Conroy/Tanguay - 0.92 goals/60
Iginla/Langkow/Tanguay - 0.99 goals/60
08/09:
Iginla/Conroy/Cammalleri - 0.58 goals/60
Iginla/Lombardi/Cammalleri - 0.57 goals/60
Iginla/Langkow/Bertuzzi - 0.34 goals/60
(Other combos are sullied by low sample sizes.)
As you can see, the lowest performing unit featuring Jarome in 07/08 outperforms the best one so far this year. And it's not like the club itself has taken a monumental step back in terms of scoring overall: with 108 ES goals, the Flames currently sit 6th in the league. Last year, they were 12th with 145 in 82 games.
Causes -
Difference in competition:
Iginla played behind Conroy and Tanguay a lot last year in terms of taking on the big guns. This season, that responsibility has mostly fallen on Jarome, although Keenan has been mixing things up a lot recently without much change in the outcome. Also, Iginla tended to face the big boys in 07/08 whenever Tanguay was on his line - and it just so happens that the combinations featuring those two players above are the best ES scoring ones in the analysis. So...
Linemates:
All arrows point to a reduction in quality of linemates playing a significant part in the variance in Iginla's output from one year to the next. Lots of kudos have been afforded to Cammalleri so far, except he's done a lot of his damage on the PP. Also, some muted acclaim has been heard for Bertuzzi in the media and such, but I think he just plain sucks. Neither of these guys are Tanguay - hell, I'd argue neither of them are Huselius at ES - especially not in terms of puck distribution in the offensive end of the rink.
Implications:
- Keenan probably owes both Tanguay and Huselius apologies, as does a portion of the Flames fanship. Both guys weren't crash-and-bangers and both could go through periods of frustrating ineffectiveness, but both were also excellent compliments to the captain (and probably better at 5on5 play than a lot of people - the taciturn coach included - gave them credit for).
- If Sutter wants to get Iginla going and seriously challenge the better teams in the league this post-season, he'll need to get Iginla some support in the top-6. Preferrably someone with good vision and an ability to move the puck into soft areas of the ice. This would probably also help the currently floundering power play as well. If not, Keenan will have to find a way to shelter Iginla a lot more.
- The answer to Iginla's struggles is certainly NOT playing him with Bertuzzi and Langkow. That's been the most ineffective trioin terms of output.
Im open for debate, but Im not sure how any other conclusion is possible at this time. Hell, we all some this coming, but it's fairly jarring to witness. If accurate, this look should also influence Sutter's decision making this summer as he wades through the league's UFA pool.
Also - thank you, lord, for Moss, Bourque, Glencross and the steps forward by Nystrom, Boyd and Lombardi.
