I've some interest in the Big Apple this year because I have Henrik Lundqvist in a couple of money pools. This month has been a tough one for me on the fantasy goalie front, therefore, since the Rags have managed all of two victories and are sliding down the standings like a dead slug on a wall. With Tom Renney undoubtedly set to walk the plank, I figured it was time to take a look at the Blueshirts numbers.
First, the shots and percentages. As you can see, the Rangers are well in the black in terms of offensive zone possession and Henrik Lundqvist is again holding up his end of the bargain at ES (SV% .919). At first glance, these are the underlying figures of a first rate club, yes?
Aside from the putrid ES SH%, of course. I haven't looked at the league average, but I'm guessing 6% is easily one of the worst out there. Only two Rangers have an individual ES SH% above 10% and one is Lauri Korpikoski (a rookie who ironically has the worst corsi rating on the club during his limited time). That inefficiency is the main culprit behind New York's 2nd worst ES goal total (92, ahead of only NSH) and resultant abysmal ES GD (-19). On the "crappy bounces" front, you can also add NYR's bottom of the barrel 13 SHG against (one @ 5on3!). Shorties are just wanton hockey gods acting out - they are rarely predictable or repeatable and therefore not really indicative of a club's abilities.
So, lots of bad luck right? I mean, the Rangers out-shoot their opponents quite frequently, have a good goalie, but can't seem to score...
The thing is, there's suggestions of a congenital defect in Gotham and it's tough to decide if the cause is systemic or the personnel. Here's what Im talking about:
NYR had a miserable SH% last year too. That club managed the third most shots on net in the league (2579) but only scored the 25th most goals (205), again leaving them with a terrible SH% (7.9%). I figured that was a fluke (one of those years), but their overall rate has actually marginally decreased this season (7.2%), which seems pretty fishy.
In addition, Hockey Numbers has the Rangers expected ES GD in the red (-3) despite their out-shooting, thanks to a league worst 0.9 SQF (shot quality for) rating. Eyeballing the list, I'd say that falls well below the league average, which is probably around 0.99-1.00. Fugly.
So who's to blame here? Is Renney extolling a "shoot from anywhere" philosophy which is resulting in a lot of crappy shots and not much else? Or is the roster just made up of a lot of lousy shooters?
It may be both. There's no arguing that Sather has spent money poorly in New York. Drury, Gomez and Redden are grossly overcompensated and it's not like the gaps are being filled by calder candidates on entry level deals. There doesn't seem to be a single Ranger whose career shooting average crests 13% (outside of Markus Naslund who has hovered around 11% the last three seasons now that he's on the down slope of his career). Gomez has always been more of a passer than a scorer as his 7.8% career rate attests and Drury is around 12% during his lifetime (his 8.9% rate this year is the lowest of his career). Aaron Voros currently leads the team in terms of SH% (12.1) and is one of only four Rangers in double digits (!). Calgary, for the sake of comparison, has eight skaters in double digits, five of which have a better number than Voros.
Overall, it looks to me like a poor mix of players and a dash of shit luck for flavor. NYR doesn't have anyone really running the table in terms of bounces and a couple of guys are under performing relative to their career norms (I'm looking at you, Drury). Not to mention all those SHG goals against. Of course, there's also a ton of bad money at the top of the roster in Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Redden = $25M, meaning acquiring a couple of "first shot" snipers to improve the team is nigh impossible*.
Perhaps some of the blame falls to Renney as well - he seems to be running a Red Wing/SJS type system which is obviously ill-suited to his team. High SF volumes are good in theory, but it helps to have a roster that is talented enough to make something of the "shoot from anywhere" philosophy. As painful as it may be to consider, a Lemaire-style system of trap/limit quality chances against/pounce on opposition errors might be a better fit, although Minnesota has an even lower expected ES GD than NYR this year, so who knows.
Anyways, if I was a Rangers suit with my finger on the button, I'd probably keep Renney and fire Sather, who I suspect is the real problem. Then I'd try to sell a couple of the bad contracts for pennies on the dollar (Gomez to CBJ for a lesser roster player and Redden to whoever would want him for anything they'd be willing to give), either at the deadline or during the summer. NYR has never had trouble attracting free gents, so all they need is some cap flexibility and a GM that can actually identify talent and pay for it at or below market value.
*(The Rangers have over 40M committed to 9 skaters next year, with the cap poised to either stagnate or go down. Rough).
Update - as I was writing this, the Rangers fired Renney. I predicted as much on Twitter last night after the loss, so it isn't a surprise. Murphy's Law says the Rags fortune turns around a bit in the next little while and the new guy will be credited with righting the ship.
