JLikens has a post on even-strength shooting percentages which is of interest. It illuminates why CORSI rates can be more indicative of a strong team than GD.
The same rules regarding the x and y axes that apply to the yellow (actual) distribution also apply to the pink (random) distribution. The relative frequency for the pink distribution is the proportional representation of each artificial shooting percentage category. As an example, as there were 100 "seasons" and 30 teams, the entire sample consisted of 3000 artificial shooting percentages. 601 artificial percentages fell between 0.08 and 0.085. The relative frequency for the '0.0825' category is therefore ~0.2, as 601/3000 = ~0.2.
However, the pink distribution is itself fairly broad. In fact, it very closely resembles the yellow distribution. As would be anticipated, the yellow distribution is slightly broader than than its counterpart, but the difference is not large. This suggests that much of the inter-team variation in EV shooting percentage is the result of randomness.
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The fact that the actual distribution is somewhat broader than the expected distribution shows that teams do indeed differ in their underlying shooting percentage at EV. Nonetheless, this variation is only very slightly larger than what would be predicted by chance alone. The underlying differences appear to be minimal.
The point is re-iterated in the comments of the post by another analysis found here. The conclusion?
"So after the whole season last year, if you gave an average team an average season and let them ride ordinary variance they could at the end of the year rank anywhere in the top 25 in goals per game."
That's a fairly massive spread, folks. At least to the human brain trying to interpret standings results during the season. When it comes to evaluating teams and predicting future success over the long term, it's becoming clearer that good teams dominate in terms of outshooting and offensive possession and pretenders ride percentages. This is why I was encouraged by what I found when I looked at the Flames road CORSI rates and percentages yesterday - the former was good and the latter was bad. So while Sutter is busy glowering at his charges after another oh-fer on a back-to-back, the truth of the matter is shit happens and the Flames will probably improve away from the Dome just because their modest road record is largely illusory.
Which isn't to say I think the team played well the two nights - on the contrary. But over the whole of the season, Calgary has positive offensive-zone results when sleeping in hotels. If they keep that up, they should be fine.
