I'm taking part in a Fantasy Draft over at Cycle Like the Sedins. I'll be drafting for the Flames (naturally) and was gifted with the first overall selection for the first time in my hockey pool career.
There's quite a bit of pressure associated with first overall. On one hand, it's hard to go wrong...on the other, there's a lot of great choices available. A number of choices ran through my head, including:
1.) Pavel Datsyuk. We're operating under a cap for the draft, so the fact that Datsyuk is one of the best players in the league but only costs around 6M a year was attractive.
2.) Crosby and Malkin. Both young, both elite, both centers.
3.) Joe Thornton. Similar to Datsyuk in that he's consistently top tier but is relatively cheap.
After all that, I settled on - who else - Alexander Ovechkin. He's the most expensive player in the league but he's just so damn good. He outshoots and outscores the competition and is deadly on the PP. I'll obviously have to find bargains later in the draft in order to compensate for his huge cap hit, but I dont think that'll be a problem.
I'll update Other picks and the final roster (as well as my competition, which should be fierce) as we move along.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Zubov to Columbus makes all sorts of sense
It's a poorly guarded secret around here that I've come to adopt the Columbus Blue Jackets as my "second team". I like a lot of their players (Nash, Huselius, Vermette, Voracek), I like their underdog status and I think Scott Howson has quietly been one of the better GM's in the league since he took the reigns from that bumbler MacLean. As such, I may add a few thoughts on them from time to time around here.
Anyways, it strikes me this summer that the BJ's should be shamelessly courting Sergei Zubov. There's obviously a lot of big question marks surrounding the former superstar: his age (39) and injury history (extensive) being the primary ones...obviously there's a reason the Stars aren't bothering to renew his contract.
On the other hand, the Blue Jackets have an urgent need for an offensively capable blueliner. Their PP was abysmal last season and though some of that was undoubtedly bad luck, a lot of it had to do with a back-end that featured Kris Russel, Rusty Klesla and not much else in terms of PP quarterbacks. Zubov - at least, the player Zubov used to be - obviously fits the bill having scored 50+ points 8 times in career. Aside from his extensive list of injuries, which I admit is non-trivial, there is little evidence that Zubov is on a steep decline: in 07/08, he scored 35 points in 46 games at 36 years old.
The various risks associated with Zubov means the Jackets can probably sign him to a low base salary buttressed by performance incentives. The risk of him retiring and the club eating the cap hit is there, but avenues exist to at least minimize the risk by lowering the cap dollars.
In addition, the problem with offensive defensemen is they are relatively rare and almost universally expensive. The UFA market is basically bereft of blueline scoring threats at this point (outside of perhaps Dennis Seidenberg, although his career high of 30 points is hardly impressive), and trades for such guys are difficult outside of salary dumps (JM Liles anyone?).
Zubov won't cost anything to acquire, he should be relatively cheap to sign and he has a positive prior association with Ken Hitchcock. Heck, Im surprised this hasn't happened already.
Anyways, it strikes me this summer that the BJ's should be shamelessly courting Sergei Zubov. There's obviously a lot of big question marks surrounding the former superstar: his age (39) and injury history (extensive) being the primary ones...obviously there's a reason the Stars aren't bothering to renew his contract.
On the other hand, the Blue Jackets have an urgent need for an offensively capable blueliner. Their PP was abysmal last season and though some of that was undoubtedly bad luck, a lot of it had to do with a back-end that featured Kris Russel, Rusty Klesla and not much else in terms of PP quarterbacks. Zubov - at least, the player Zubov used to be - obviously fits the bill having scored 50+ points 8 times in career. Aside from his extensive list of injuries, which I admit is non-trivial, there is little evidence that Zubov is on a steep decline: in 07/08, he scored 35 points in 46 games at 36 years old.
The various risks associated with Zubov means the Jackets can probably sign him to a low base salary buttressed by performance incentives. The risk of him retiring and the club eating the cap hit is there, but avenues exist to at least minimize the risk by lowering the cap dollars.
In addition, the problem with offensive defensemen is they are relatively rare and almost universally expensive. The UFA market is basically bereft of blueline scoring threats at this point (outside of perhaps Dennis Seidenberg, although his career high of 30 points is hardly impressive), and trades for such guys are difficult outside of salary dumps (JM Liles anyone?).
Zubov won't cost anything to acquire, he should be relatively cheap to sign and he has a positive prior association with Ken Hitchcock. Heck, Im surprised this hasn't happened already.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
On Dale Tallon
His firing was considered an inevitability back when Bowman was hired, but it sounds like the Hawks have legitimate beefs with his management - meaning the pink slip wasn't simply a formality.
The RFA situation was a very obvious, very public F-up. The team is lucky he managed to sign the guys in question.
Then there's the Martin Havlat stuff. If you don't have Twitter or aren't following Havlat, here's some of his most recent "tweets":
Lot's of people are telling me to stay quiet but shouldn't the fans know the truth? It's your loyalty, season ticket money and emotions here.
I guess everyone saw what happened to Dale....yes, the story is starting to come out but it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Excited to be in Minny where I was welcomed and appreciated by management. The real story about what happened in Chicago to come out.
Yikes. Some serious bad blood there, despite the fact Tallon signed Havlat to a big, long term deal the first time. It's going to be fascinating when Martin spills the beans because NHL players are usually so tight-lipped.
EDIT - Looks like I've misread the situation. According to Mirtle and some of Havlat's more recent tweets, Tallon apparently wasn't at all the target of his discontent.
The RFA situation was a very obvious, very public F-up. The team is lucky he managed to sign the guys in question.
Then there's the Martin Havlat stuff. If you don't have Twitter or aren't following Havlat, here's some of his most recent "tweets":
Lot's of people are telling me to stay quiet but shouldn't the fans know the truth? It's your loyalty, season ticket money and emotions here.
I guess everyone saw what happened to Dale....yes, the story is starting to come out but it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Excited to be in Minny where I was welcomed and appreciated by management. The real story about what happened in Chicago to come out.
Yikes. Some serious bad blood there, despite the fact Tallon signed Havlat to a big, long term deal the first time. It's going to be fascinating when Martin spills the beans because NHL players are usually so tight-lipped.
EDIT - Looks like I've misread the situation. According to Mirtle and some of Havlat's more recent tweets, Tallon apparently wasn't at all the target of his discontent.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Flames sign McGrattan, perpetuate fraud.
Enforcers are the great placebo of the NHL. They persist because everyone thinks they do something positive (intimidate other teams, "protect" star players) even though there isn't a shred of evidence that they actually accomplish anything.
The goon in the modern NHL is a castrated beast. He bleeds goals against and his every move on the ice is tracked by nervous eyes and quick whistles. Fines and suspensions are the primary fruit of his labor. He is rendered impotent by two simple letters: "no". Pests laugh in the goons face. All that's left is the occasional, ritualistic dance with another anachronistic brute before the hoots and hollers of the crowd. It's exciting, it's gladiatorial, but...I doubt it helps win hockey games.
EDIT - Just stumbled upon this expansive essay on the subject by E over at Theory of Ice. Similar sentiments are expressed more thoroughly:
The power of a fight to resolve violent tension in a hockey game is, in essence, the ultimate placebo effect. It works not so much because of anything it does in itself, but because of what the concerned parties believe it does. As such, it’s a highly imprecise conflict-resolution technique. While there are many incidents one could point to where two fighters thwacking at each other after a dubious incident provided satisfactory resolution to both teams, one can also point to at least a few very high profile cases where a fight not only failed to resolve tension, but perhaps escalated it. It may indeed be a safety valve of sorts, but it’s a defective one that can fail at any moment. However, whether or not fighting serves the function people claim for it is somewhat secondary, because what matters for professional hockey-fighters is that placebo effect- the belief that it can control the inherent danger, violence, and unpredictability of the game. Surveys occasionally show that players generally like having a fighter on their team- not, perhaps, because he actually makes them any safer, but because he makes them feel somehow safer.
The goon in the modern NHL is a castrated beast. He bleeds goals against and his every move on the ice is tracked by nervous eyes and quick whistles. Fines and suspensions are the primary fruit of his labor. He is rendered impotent by two simple letters: "no". Pests laugh in the goons face. All that's left is the occasional, ritualistic dance with another anachronistic brute before the hoots and hollers of the crowd. It's exciting, it's gladiatorial, but...I doubt it helps win hockey games.
EDIT - Just stumbled upon this expansive essay on the subject by E over at Theory of Ice. Similar sentiments are expressed more thoroughly:
The power of a fight to resolve violent tension in a hockey game is, in essence, the ultimate placebo effect. It works not so much because of anything it does in itself, but because of what the concerned parties believe it does. As such, it’s a highly imprecise conflict-resolution technique. While there are many incidents one could point to where two fighters thwacking at each other after a dubious incident provided satisfactory resolution to both teams, one can also point to at least a few very high profile cases where a fight not only failed to resolve tension, but perhaps escalated it. It may indeed be a safety valve of sorts, but it’s a defective one that can fail at any moment. However, whether or not fighting serves the function people claim for it is somewhat secondary, because what matters for professional hockey-fighters is that placebo effect- the belief that it can control the inherent danger, violence, and unpredictability of the game. Surveys occasionally show that players generally like having a fighter on their team- not, perhaps, because he actually makes them any safer, but because he makes them feel somehow safer.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Defense, Goalies and Perception
If you talk to Avs fans about their lousy season, you'll often hear how awful the defense was. It was obviously a sore spot with the team placing 26th overall in terms of GA.
The strange this is, none of the metrics aside from goals against suggest that Colorado was bad in their own end. The Avalanche actually allowed the 9th fewest shots against per game (29). And it's not like they were giving up break-aways or point blank chances: according to sites that track quality of shots against, Colorado was also in the top third of the league by these metrics: Desjardins has both Avs goalies with expected SV% of .915 (Budaj) and .916 (Raycroft). Nik Backstrom was the only regular starter with a higher expected SV% according to this process.
In addition, Hockey Numbers has COL SQA (shot quality against) at 0.97, good for 7th in the NHL.
The primary culprit, therefore, was the Avs crap-tastic goaltending. Colorado fans can thank the duo of Budaj and Raycroft for the Duchene pick this past entry draft.
It's funny how much blame the COL defense absorbs however. I'm certainly not calling Avs fans thick or unobservant, it's just the nature of perception: on almost every shot on goal, one could probably identify a mistake or missed opportunity to deny the chance. When pucks go in, the "mistakes" are noticed and tallied. If not, then not. For example: Jarome Iginla charges into the zone, one-on-one with Scott Hannan. Jarome makes a strong move left and fires the puck through Hannan's legs at the goal. Outcome one: Budaj makes the save, Hannan is lauded for not allowing Iginla a better chance. Outcome two: the puck sales through Budaj (again!) and Hannan is pilloried for not denying the shot AND providing an unwitting screen. The same play could be perceived differently based solely on the outcome. There's a reason bad goaltenders are coach killers (and good goaltenders make for genius coaches).
Something similar has been happening in Flames circles the last couple of years, although Calgary has been decidedly middling in terms of defensive performance in contrast to Colorado. That said, it'll be instructive to see what happens this year should the projected defensive improvement under Brent Sutter occur but without a concurrent rise in Kipper's SV%.
The strange this is, none of the metrics aside from goals against suggest that Colorado was bad in their own end. The Avalanche actually allowed the 9th fewest shots against per game (29). And it's not like they were giving up break-aways or point blank chances: according to sites that track quality of shots against, Colorado was also in the top third of the league by these metrics: Desjardins has both Avs goalies with expected SV% of .915 (Budaj) and .916 (Raycroft). Nik Backstrom was the only regular starter with a higher expected SV% according to this process.
In addition, Hockey Numbers has COL SQA (shot quality against) at 0.97, good for 7th in the NHL.
The primary culprit, therefore, was the Avs crap-tastic goaltending. Colorado fans can thank the duo of Budaj and Raycroft for the Duchene pick this past entry draft.
It's funny how much blame the COL defense absorbs however. I'm certainly not calling Avs fans thick or unobservant, it's just the nature of perception: on almost every shot on goal, one could probably identify a mistake or missed opportunity to deny the chance. When pucks go in, the "mistakes" are noticed and tallied. If not, then not. For example: Jarome Iginla charges into the zone, one-on-one with Scott Hannan. Jarome makes a strong move left and fires the puck through Hannan's legs at the goal. Outcome one: Budaj makes the save, Hannan is lauded for not allowing Iginla a better chance. Outcome two: the puck sales through Budaj (again!) and Hannan is pilloried for not denying the shot AND providing an unwitting screen. The same play could be perceived differently based solely on the outcome. There's a reason bad goaltenders are coach killers (and good goaltenders make for genius coaches).
Something similar has been happening in Flames circles the last couple of years, although Calgary has been decidedly middling in terms of defensive performance in contrast to Colorado. That said, it'll be instructive to see what happens this year should the projected defensive improvement under Brent Sutter occur but without a concurrent rise in Kipper's SV%.
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Luongo or Schneider. Pick one.
Despite being one year away from unrestricted free agency, reports are saying that goalie Roberto Luongo is discussing a contract extension with the Vancouver Canucks.
CKNW Radio in Vancouver is speculating that Luongo and his agent, Gilles Lupien, are asking for a long-term deal that would be at least five years in length...
From the start of the month.
Versus:
Goaltender Cory Schneider will be given a chance to make the Vancouver Canucks this fall, which could result in recent signing Andrew Raycroft playing for the AHL Manitoba Moose, general manager Mike Gillis said Tuesday.
"Our long-range plans are to keep him as a Vancouver Canuck and having him play here."
From two days ago.
Here's the problem with goalies...it just can't be both, folks. If Vancouver locks up Luongo long-term for big bucks - unless Schneider is happy watching most of the season as a door opener or "seasoning" in the AHL till his mid-20's - I don't think he'll be sticking around.
Ideally, signing Luongo short-term and aggressively developing Schneider in the mean time is the answer. Of course, you can only develop a kid in the minors for so long before he has to be tested against NHL shooters to see if he can make the leap. Problem is, that requires trying to split time with the expensive superstar - a job so thankless the Canucks apparently went out and got the worst (and therefore best) guy they could find to fill it this coming season.
If indeed Gillis manages to get Luongo's name on a long-term deal, it'll be fascinating to see what the Canucks do if Schneider knocks it out of the park in the AHL again - especially considering the trade market for AHL goalies (even really, really good ones) is quite poor.
CKNW Radio in Vancouver is speculating that Luongo and his agent, Gilles Lupien, are asking for a long-term deal that would be at least five years in length...
From the start of the month.
Versus:
Goaltender Cory Schneider will be given a chance to make the Vancouver Canucks this fall, which could result in recent signing Andrew Raycroft playing for the AHL Manitoba Moose, general manager Mike Gillis said Tuesday.
"Our long-range plans are to keep him as a Vancouver Canuck and having him play here."
From two days ago.
Here's the problem with goalies...it just can't be both, folks. If Vancouver locks up Luongo long-term for big bucks - unless Schneider is happy watching most of the season as a door opener or "seasoning" in the AHL till his mid-20's - I don't think he'll be sticking around.
Ideally, signing Luongo short-term and aggressively developing Schneider in the mean time is the answer. Of course, you can only develop a kid in the minors for so long before he has to be tested against NHL shooters to see if he can make the leap. Problem is, that requires trying to split time with the expensive superstar - a job so thankless the Canucks apparently went out and got the worst (and therefore best) guy they could find to fill it this coming season.
If indeed Gillis manages to get Luongo's name on a long-term deal, it'll be fascinating to see what the Canucks do if Schneider knocks it out of the park in the AHL again - especially considering the trade market for AHL goalies (even really, really good ones) is quite poor.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Go get Nik Zherdev
Ever since he and his agent pulled a "hold out in Russia for more money" stunt in Columbus, Zherdev's reputation has taken a dive from "burgeoning superstar" to "enigmatic and inconsistent russian". At best. The fact that he had a rough season right after holding out for a big contract didn't help any.
Truth is, Zherdev was still a kid at the time, going through a kid's growing pains. Hell, he's still a kid at 24 years old. In terms of pure talent, he's up there. He's also already scored 20+ goals 3 times in his young career.
His boxcar numbers aren't staggering from last season (23-35-58), but keep in mind the Rangers were a brutal club in terms of offense at both ES and the PP. In contrast Zherdev's advanced ES stats speak pretty highly of him:
QUAL Comp: +0.03 (middling)
Corsi: +14.6 (second)
ESP/60: 2.56 (first)
+/-: +12 (first)
Zherdev outshot and outscored the opposition handily last year, even though most of his team was in the red in terms of plus/minus and he wasn't playing against 4th liners.
Of course, as per the Rangers habit of mismanagement, it looks Zherdev is on his way out of broadway. Apparently the club is annoyed that the kid filed for arbitration like 20 of this peers. Word is, the Rangers will walk away from any award that is too far north of 3M, making Zherdev a free agent. That also means the kid is up for grabs for peanuts prior to arbitration, meaning someone could pick Sather's pocket as long as they're prepared to deal with whatever Zherdev's awarded (or just negotiate a longer term deal with him before the hearing).
There's a good, young player up for grabs here. It'll be interesting to see who's paying attention.
Truth is, Zherdev was still a kid at the time, going through a kid's growing pains. Hell, he's still a kid at 24 years old. In terms of pure talent, he's up there. He's also already scored 20+ goals 3 times in his young career.
His boxcar numbers aren't staggering from last season (23-35-58), but keep in mind the Rangers were a brutal club in terms of offense at both ES and the PP. In contrast Zherdev's advanced ES stats speak pretty highly of him:
QUAL Comp: +0.03 (middling)
Corsi: +14.6 (second)
ESP/60: 2.56 (first)
+/-: +12 (first)
Zherdev outshot and outscored the opposition handily last year, even though most of his team was in the red in terms of plus/minus and he wasn't playing against 4th liners.
Of course, as per the Rangers habit of mismanagement, it looks Zherdev is on his way out of broadway. Apparently the club is annoyed that the kid filed for arbitration like 20 of this peers. Word is, the Rangers will walk away from any award that is too far north of 3M, making Zherdev a free agent. That also means the kid is up for grabs for peanuts prior to arbitration, meaning someone could pick Sather's pocket as long as they're prepared to deal with whatever Zherdev's awarded (or just negotiate a longer term deal with him before the hearing).
There's a good, young player up for grabs here. It'll be interesting to see who's paying attention.
Monday, July 06, 2009
Ah Murray Murray...oh Baby! You Gotta go...
I wondered aloud a few posts ago whether the Sens Bryan Murray might be the worst GM in the league. That was in response to the 8M Chris Neil contract, but there's a laundry list of F-ups to choose from: the deterioration of his team and blueline since making the finals, the Vermette for Leclaire trade, not to mention the ham fisted manner in which the Dany Heatley situation has been handled.
Now this. Murray has signed 36 year old Alexei Kovalev to a 2 year, $10M deal. Not only is Kovalev old, but, outside of that outlier season built on percentages in 07/08, he's not much of a player at ES. Last year, for example, he may have led the Canadiens in scoring but that had a lot to do with copious amounts of PP time as well as the injuries to Tanguay, Koivu and Lang. He actually placed fifth on the club in terms of ESP/60 (1.78), behind Tanguay, Koivu, Lang and Latendresse. Aside from 07/08, the last time he scored more than 70 points was 02/03. He's a career minus player as well.
Kovalev is still a capable enough as to not be totally worthless, but at that price and at that age, he's a bad bet. Hell, his salary is just 400k less than Daniel Alfredsson who is vastly superior player in my estimation.
Now this. Murray has signed 36 year old Alexei Kovalev to a 2 year, $10M deal. Not only is Kovalev old, but, outside of that outlier season built on percentages in 07/08, he's not much of a player at ES. Last year, for example, he may have led the Canadiens in scoring but that had a lot to do with copious amounts of PP time as well as the injuries to Tanguay, Koivu and Lang. He actually placed fifth on the club in terms of ESP/60 (1.78), behind Tanguay, Koivu, Lang and Latendresse. Aside from 07/08, the last time he scored more than 70 points was 02/03. He's a career minus player as well.
Kovalev is still a capable enough as to not be totally worthless, but at that price and at that age, he's a bad bet. Hell, his salary is just 400k less than Daniel Alfredsson who is vastly superior player in my estimation.
Saturday, July 04, 2009
Kings Ascension?
News came out recently the LA Kings have moved a couple of extra pieces for Ryan Smyth. Their top 6 now looks something like this:
Frolov-Kopitar-Brown
Smyth-Stoll-Williams
Scary. I count at least 4 or 5 guys who can take on heavy competition and keep their heads above water. Hell, I'm betting that first line could hang with some of the best in the league. None of those three guys scored at a good rate last year at ES, but they were all in the black in terms of corsi. The Kings outshot the opposition routinely despite being a bottom of the barrel club; it was a terrible ES SH% (a ghastly 6.8) that suppressed everyone's scoring. If this were, say, the Islanders inflicted with injury I'd admit that that pathetic success rate was indicative of a lack of skill - but, the Kings had a decent group of forwards (thus the outshooting) and I think it was just their time to be at the wrong end of the curve.
One guy to keep an eye on in particular is Dustin Brown. He led the league in terms of penalty differential by a country mile last year and he managed to fire 292 shots on net in just 80 games (Iginla had 289 in 82 by way of comparison). His PDO was 98.3, putting him in line for a rebound and the dude is 24 years old. He seems to have things figured out already and he's got a few more years to improve.
There's always a couple of Cinderella stories every NHL season. I half expect the Kings to be the WC's big mover next year, assuming Lombardi doesn't somehow fumble the ball at some point this summer.
Frolov-Kopitar-Brown
Smyth-Stoll-Williams
Scary. I count at least 4 or 5 guys who can take on heavy competition and keep their heads above water. Hell, I'm betting that first line could hang with some of the best in the league. None of those three guys scored at a good rate last year at ES, but they were all in the black in terms of corsi. The Kings outshot the opposition routinely despite being a bottom of the barrel club; it was a terrible ES SH% (a ghastly 6.8) that suppressed everyone's scoring. If this were, say, the Islanders inflicted with injury I'd admit that that pathetic success rate was indicative of a lack of skill - but, the Kings had a decent group of forwards (thus the outshooting) and I think it was just their time to be at the wrong end of the curve.
One guy to keep an eye on in particular is Dustin Brown. He led the league in terms of penalty differential by a country mile last year and he managed to fire 292 shots on net in just 80 games (Iginla had 289 in 82 by way of comparison). His PDO was 98.3, putting him in line for a rebound and the dude is 24 years old. He seems to have things figured out already and he's got a few more years to improve.
There's always a couple of Cinderella stories every NHL season. I half expect the Kings to be the WC's big mover next year, assuming Lombardi doesn't somehow fumble the ball at some point this summer.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Impressions after day 1
The good:
- Flames sign Bouwmeester. Yeah, the budgeting becomes more difficult going forward, but Bouwmeester is special class of player - already one of the best in the biz and just 25 years old. That's the type of player that you add if you can and make it work around him. Can't complain about the Pardy or Sjostrom signings either.
- Mike Knuble in WAS for 2.8M was a nice find. The big guy is a consistent 20+ goal scorer and can play against almost anyone without being under water. Solid player for a decent price - I was hoping the Flames would go after him with a similar deal.
- Craig Anderson in COL for pocket change is the deal they should have made last year instead of inking FAILcroft. The former Flames 3rd rounder hasn't played a ton the last few years, but his results have been outstanding. He's at the very least a good bet to provide league average goaltending, which is a steal at his price point. If he's any better than thay, the Avs win with this one big time. Low risk, high reward.
- Joel Ward at 3M for two years back in NSH is probably a good move. Did you know Ward had 17 goals last year? Do you know who Joel Ward is at all? He's basically the Preds David Moss - solid all around, scores enough to be useful, etc. These are great players to have for 1.5M.
- I also like Minny's signings of Greg Zanon at 1.93/year and Martin Havlat at 5. I've liked Zanon for awhile even though there's not much offense in him. Good penalty killer, solid and ES, blocks a ton of shots. He firms up any blueline. It's also hard to believe the Wild got Havlat for just 5M a year after the best season of his career. Not only did he finally play most of the games, he was also pressed into shut-down duty by Quenneville and he still slapped the opposition around at ES. Good to see Miikko Koivu finally get some help.
- Sammy Pahlsson probably isn't bad value at 2.65 for the Blue Jackets, who were in the market for a Malholtra replacement. Im guessing Hitchcock is pretty thrilled to have the checking center on his club.
The Bad:
- I laughed out loud when they announced Colton Orr to TOR for 4M over 4 years. Good ol' Burke and his cowbells! What a ridiculous contract for a guy who gets his ass-kicked (figuratively, of course) by other 4th liners.
- Pretty much everything touched by Bob Gainey: he trades a useful bunch of players and prospects to NYR in exchange for one of the worst contracts in the NHL in Scott Gomez. Then he lets Komisarek walk over a seemingly reasonable contract, but signs 35 year old Jaroslav Spacek for 3 years and bunch of cash. Not being satisfied with that, he marginally overpays Mike Cammalleri (5 years, 30M) and then grossly overpays Brian Gionta (5 years, 25M). Yuck. I'd be pretty down if I were a Habs fan today.
- Good to see Sather up to his old tricks. He scores a coup by fooling someone into taking Gomez off his hands...and then re-invests the savings in another bad bet, Marian Gaborik. The guy is fast and a top notch scorer, but there's probably no one in the NHL who is more injury prone. I can't imagine him covering his whole 7.5M salary each year.
- On a similar note, Steve Sullivan for 3.75M/year doesn't make much sense to me either. I'm a fan of Sullivan and think he's effective when healthy, but that's really rare. And the dude is 36 years old. It makes sense to try to sign someone like Sullivan, but only if you can get him at a sizable discount.
- Khabibulin to the Oilers. HAHA!
- Chris Neil for 2M for 4 years is total nonsense. He's a goon who is marginally better at ES than guys like Orr and Godard. Is Murray one of the worst GM's in the league right now?
- Scott Clemmensen lands in FLA for the same price Anderson got in COL. Anderson is younger and his career stats in both the NHL and AHL are vastly superior. Given how mediocre Clemmensen has been for years, there's probably no chance he repeats the run he had with the Devils last year.
More as they come in...
- Flames sign Bouwmeester. Yeah, the budgeting becomes more difficult going forward, but Bouwmeester is special class of player - already one of the best in the biz and just 25 years old. That's the type of player that you add if you can and make it work around him. Can't complain about the Pardy or Sjostrom signings either.
- Mike Knuble in WAS for 2.8M was a nice find. The big guy is a consistent 20+ goal scorer and can play against almost anyone without being under water. Solid player for a decent price - I was hoping the Flames would go after him with a similar deal.
- Craig Anderson in COL for pocket change is the deal they should have made last year instead of inking FAILcroft. The former Flames 3rd rounder hasn't played a ton the last few years, but his results have been outstanding. He's at the very least a good bet to provide league average goaltending, which is a steal at his price point. If he's any better than thay, the Avs win with this one big time. Low risk, high reward.
- Joel Ward at 3M for two years back in NSH is probably a good move. Did you know Ward had 17 goals last year? Do you know who Joel Ward is at all? He's basically the Preds David Moss - solid all around, scores enough to be useful, etc. These are great players to have for 1.5M.
- I also like Minny's signings of Greg Zanon at 1.93/year and Martin Havlat at 5. I've liked Zanon for awhile even though there's not much offense in him. Good penalty killer, solid and ES, blocks a ton of shots. He firms up any blueline. It's also hard to believe the Wild got Havlat for just 5M a year after the best season of his career. Not only did he finally play most of the games, he was also pressed into shut-down duty by Quenneville and he still slapped the opposition around at ES. Good to see Miikko Koivu finally get some help.
- Sammy Pahlsson probably isn't bad value at 2.65 for the Blue Jackets, who were in the market for a Malholtra replacement. Im guessing Hitchcock is pretty thrilled to have the checking center on his club.
The Bad:
- I laughed out loud when they announced Colton Orr to TOR for 4M over 4 years. Good ol' Burke and his cowbells! What a ridiculous contract for a guy who gets his ass-kicked (figuratively, of course) by other 4th liners.
- Pretty much everything touched by Bob Gainey: he trades a useful bunch of players and prospects to NYR in exchange for one of the worst contracts in the NHL in Scott Gomez. Then he lets Komisarek walk over a seemingly reasonable contract, but signs 35 year old Jaroslav Spacek for 3 years and bunch of cash. Not being satisfied with that, he marginally overpays Mike Cammalleri (5 years, 30M) and then grossly overpays Brian Gionta (5 years, 25M). Yuck. I'd be pretty down if I were a Habs fan today.
- Good to see Sather up to his old tricks. He scores a coup by fooling someone into taking Gomez off his hands...and then re-invests the savings in another bad bet, Marian Gaborik. The guy is fast and a top notch scorer, but there's probably no one in the NHL who is more injury prone. I can't imagine him covering his whole 7.5M salary each year.
- On a similar note, Steve Sullivan for 3.75M/year doesn't make much sense to me either. I'm a fan of Sullivan and think he's effective when healthy, but that's really rare. And the dude is 36 years old. It makes sense to try to sign someone like Sullivan, but only if you can get him at a sizable discount.
- Khabibulin to the Oilers. HAHA!
- Chris Neil for 2M for 4 years is total nonsense. He's a goon who is marginally better at ES than guys like Orr and Godard. Is Murray one of the worst GM's in the league right now?
- Scott Clemmensen lands in FLA for the same price Anderson got in COL. Anderson is younger and his career stats in both the NHL and AHL are vastly superior. Given how mediocre Clemmensen has been for years, there's probably no chance he repeats the run he had with the Devils last year.
More as they come in...
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
2009 Free Agency
I'll add my thoughts here as deals come in. My Flames stuff is elsewhere, but I'll talk about everything else here.
Some initial thoughts:
- I'm really interested to see what Minnesota will do. As of right now, I have no idea what direction the new regime will take. Risebrough was almost never a player on July 1, so I half expect Fletcher to try to make splash or two. I also think Saku Koivu will end up a Wild by the end of the day.
- The Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers both have a lot of spaces to fill and, with the Gomez deal, both have some money to spend. If every third contract today involves NYR or MON, I won't be surprised.
- Mike Cammalleri will end up in Toronto I think. Burke was probably hoping to see the Sedins make it to free agency, but with them off the table he'll turn his attention to other shiny baubles like Cammalleri.
Some initial thoughts:
- I'm really interested to see what Minnesota will do. As of right now, I have no idea what direction the new regime will take. Risebrough was almost never a player on July 1, so I half expect Fletcher to try to make splash or two. I also think Saku Koivu will end up a Wild by the end of the day.
- The Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers both have a lot of spaces to fill and, with the Gomez deal, both have some money to spend. If every third contract today involves NYR or MON, I won't be surprised.
- Mike Cammalleri will end up in Toronto I think. Burke was probably hoping to see the Sedins make it to free agency, but with them off the table he'll turn his attention to other shiny baubles like Cammalleri.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Trickle up
From Nathan Fournier via The Hockey Program:
I think the new trend from now on is goalies aren't going to be selected in the first round unless they are elite. Goalies who I thought were late 1st round or second round players went in the third round or later. Goalies I thought were late round picks went earlier then I expected.
I noticed the same thing this season: for the first time in recent memory, a puck stopper wasn't chosen in the first round. Coincidence? Or is theory from the lowly blogosphere somehow trickling into the NHL team's offices?
I think the new trend from now on is goalies aren't going to be selected in the first round unless they are elite. Goalies who I thought were late 1st round or second round players went in the third round or later. Goalies I thought were late round picks went earlier then I expected.
I noticed the same thing this season: for the first time in recent memory, a puck stopper wasn't chosen in the first round. Coincidence? Or is theory from the lowly blogosphere somehow trickling into the NHL team's offices?
Draft Thoughts
- Not sure what to make of the Flames draft at this point. I was somewhat surprised with the Erixon pick and disappointed Calgary didn't grab Schroeder when he fell to them at 20. Bjorklund and Howse are intriguing mid rounders, especially the Swede who will playing in the SEL as a teen this coming season. I know absolutely nothing about the goalie and Gaelen Patterson was passed over in his draft year but put up decent enough numbers to be worth a late round gamble this time.
I was surprised Calgary took a d-man with their first pick, although Tod Button mentioned in a post-draft interview that the focus after that was to get scoring wingers (as I surmised previously). Thus the Howse, Bjorklund, Bennett picks later on.
Whether or not Bouwmeester signs with the Flames, I approve of Sutter's gambit to acquire his rights, if only because the price was so small. Leo wasn't coming back anyways and a 3rd rounder is about a 19% chance at a future NHLer.
- The Oilers draft looked like a mix of good and bad to me. They got a really nice player in the first round in Paajarvi-Svaslkahjsdlkasj*&! but then opted to use their 3rd round choice on a guy might have an Eric Godard-type ceiling. Now, as established, 3rd rounders aren't exactly worth a whole lot anyways, but pissing one away on a potential goon makes precisely zero sense to me. Goons don't have to be drafted or developed - there's plenty of them floating around for league minimum.
The Brodziak trade was pretty bizarre as well. He's never going to be a star but I got the feeling that at 25 he had established himself as an NHLer and still had a few years to grow...moving him for a 4th round pick is selling for pennies on the dollar. Unless he's roundly hated in the dressing room for some reason, doesn't make much sense to me.
- NYI moves at the draft were, appropriately enough, baffling. They moved a handful of picks to move up from 26-16...then did it again to move from 16-12...only to choose Calvin DeHaan, who very likely could have been available at 26 anyways. He was rated as the 25th skater in North America by Central Scouting and is said to have sizable holes in his game outside of the offensive zone. Erixon, Rundblad, Despres, Moore and Olsen were all still on the table at 12, BTW.
- Equally head scratching was the Nick Leddy choice by Minny at 16. He won the "Mr. Hockey" award in Minnesota for his work last season, but that's a fairly high draft choice to invest in a kid that hasn't played more than HS hockey.
- Scott Howson was quietly busy at the draft. He traded moved 16-77 for 26-37-62-92 and then dealt 26-37 to Ana for #21. He started with 16-77 and ended with 21-62-92. Decent work I'd say.
- My mock choice Landon Ferraro went to the Red Wings. Lucky bastard. And good on Detroit, Ferraro looks like decent value in the second round to me.
- Philly's trade for Pronger is either going to pay off in spades or completely blow up in their faces. He's 34 years old with a year left on his contract and the Flyers moved 3 first round picks and a somewhat useful roster player for him. That's a really high price to pay and one that may hobble the club in the future, especially if he starts to decline or doesn't sign to stay after this season.
All that said, a marriage of Captain Elbows and the broad street bully franchise seems like a match made in heaven.
- Im somewhat surprised LA kept the 5th overall choice. For two reasons:
1.) They're a club on the verge of breaking out of the basement I think. All they need is some true-blue veteran talent to prop up their bevy of skilled youngsters. A 5th for a signed star at either forward or defense really would have made sense.
2.) A huge portion of their roster is kids. Cheap kids for now, but once they all come up for renewal the Kings are going in for a world of hurt. Adding to that cohort may be a problem.
- It was terrible to see Vancouver scoop Schroeder at 21. He was the best value player at the time and apparently fell due to size and attitude concerns. I have a feeling he's going to be a quality NHL player though and I hope he doesn't make the Flames regret missing him at 20.
I was surprised Calgary took a d-man with their first pick, although Tod Button mentioned in a post-draft interview that the focus after that was to get scoring wingers (as I surmised previously). Thus the Howse, Bjorklund, Bennett picks later on.
Whether or not Bouwmeester signs with the Flames, I approve of Sutter's gambit to acquire his rights, if only because the price was so small. Leo wasn't coming back anyways and a 3rd rounder is about a 19% chance at a future NHLer.
- The Oilers draft looked like a mix of good and bad to me. They got a really nice player in the first round in Paajarvi-Svaslkahjsdlkasj*&! but then opted to use their 3rd round choice on a guy might have an Eric Godard-type ceiling. Now, as established, 3rd rounders aren't exactly worth a whole lot anyways, but pissing one away on a potential goon makes precisely zero sense to me. Goons don't have to be drafted or developed - there's plenty of them floating around for league minimum.
The Brodziak trade was pretty bizarre as well. He's never going to be a star but I got the feeling that at 25 he had established himself as an NHLer and still had a few years to grow...moving him for a 4th round pick is selling for pennies on the dollar. Unless he's roundly hated in the dressing room for some reason, doesn't make much sense to me.
- NYI moves at the draft were, appropriately enough, baffling. They moved a handful of picks to move up from 26-16...then did it again to move from 16-12...only to choose Calvin DeHaan, who very likely could have been available at 26 anyways. He was rated as the 25th skater in North America by Central Scouting and is said to have sizable holes in his game outside of the offensive zone. Erixon, Rundblad, Despres, Moore and Olsen were all still on the table at 12, BTW.
- Equally head scratching was the Nick Leddy choice by Minny at 16. He won the "Mr. Hockey" award in Minnesota for his work last season, but that's a fairly high draft choice to invest in a kid that hasn't played more than HS hockey.
- Scott Howson was quietly busy at the draft. He traded moved 16-77 for 26-37-62-92 and then dealt 26-37 to Ana for #21. He started with 16-77 and ended with 21-62-92. Decent work I'd say.
- My mock choice Landon Ferraro went to the Red Wings. Lucky bastard. And good on Detroit, Ferraro looks like decent value in the second round to me.
- Philly's trade for Pronger is either going to pay off in spades or completely blow up in their faces. He's 34 years old with a year left on his contract and the Flyers moved 3 first round picks and a somewhat useful roster player for him. That's a really high price to pay and one that may hobble the club in the future, especially if he starts to decline or doesn't sign to stay after this season.
All that said, a marriage of Captain Elbows and the broad street bully franchise seems like a match made in heaven.
- Im somewhat surprised LA kept the 5th overall choice. For two reasons:
1.) They're a club on the verge of breaking out of the basement I think. All they need is some true-blue veteran talent to prop up their bevy of skilled youngsters. A 5th for a signed star at either forward or defense really would have made sense.
2.) A huge portion of their roster is kids. Cheap kids for now, but once they all come up for renewal the Kings are going in for a world of hurt. Adding to that cohort may be a problem.
- It was terrible to see Vancouver scoop Schroeder at 21. He was the best value player at the time and apparently fell due to size and attitude concerns. I have a feeling he's going to be a quality NHL player though and I hope he doesn't make the Flames regret missing him at 20.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Draft day links and such
I'll be following today's action over at M&G. No doubt the Flames will be involved with a move or two, so it should be interesting. SBN also has a big draft hub here.
- The Nations Sites have sent Jason Gregor to Montreal to cover things close up. Im sure he'll be furnishing us with updates frequently.
- I also have some thoughts on the draft over at Cycle Like the Sedins. I discuss what I look for in evaluating prospects as well as Calgary's top 3 draft steals and busts over the years.
- Looks like we might have another Flames blogger on our hands. Stop by and make Cassie feel welcome - with Open Ice Hits and Battle of Alberta dwindling, Flames-centric fan writers are about as rare as desert flowers.
- The Nations Sites have sent Jason Gregor to Montreal to cover things close up. Im sure he'll be furnishing us with updates frequently.
- I also have some thoughts on the draft over at Cycle Like the Sedins. I discuss what I look for in evaluating prospects as well as Calgary's top 3 draft steals and busts over the years.
- Looks like we might have another Flames blogger on our hands. Stop by and make Cassie feel welcome - with Open Ice Hits and Battle of Alberta dwindling, Flames-centric fan writers are about as rare as desert flowers.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Sign of the times
I rarely use this blog for anything besides hockey analysis, but this is one of those personal posts...
The small start-up/ R&D company I've worked for the last few years is having trouble paying me due to economy-related funding issues. As such, I'm on the look out for part -time or full-time contractual or long-term employment.
I have experience writing and editing business documents ranging from business plans/ executive summaries to producing PPT presentations and investor relation communications. I also have some skills at research and analysis. I have 6 years of formal education invested in business admin (2 years) and a Bachelor of Arts (4 years).
Some of my best work for this space can be browsed here. Anyone interested in my full resume and such can email me @ kent.wilson@gmail.com
This post may not bear any fruit, but I figure it can't hurt to get this kind of thing in front of as many eyeballs as possible.
The small start-up/ R&D company I've worked for the last few years is having trouble paying me due to economy-related funding issues. As such, I'm on the look out for part -time or full-time contractual or long-term employment.
I have experience writing and editing business documents ranging from business plans/ executive summaries to producing PPT presentations and investor relation communications. I also have some skills at research and analysis. I have 6 years of formal education invested in business admin (2 years) and a Bachelor of Arts (4 years).
Some of my best work for this space can be browsed here. Anyone interested in my full resume and such can email me @ kent.wilson@gmail.com
This post may not bear any fruit, but I figure it can't hurt to get this kind of thing in front of as many eyeballs as possible.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
The Best Player Available myth
It's commonly held that a dichotomy exists in fundamental draft strategy in hockey: pick for need versus best player available. Sensibly, most hockey fans and pundits eschew the first strategy: outside of picking a generational Crosby-like talent in the first round, a vast majority of prospects won't contribute anything valuable at the NHL level for at least 5 years, at which time the needs of the big club may have drastically changed.
But outside, say, the first five choices in every entry draft, is picking the "best player available" actually possible? From my own investigations into the matter, chances of picking an actual NHL player drop from 95% in the top 5 to about a coin flip by the end of the first round. Chances fall precipitously after that, to about 25% in round 2, 19% in round 3 and so on. In fact, as the draft progresses, the talent tends to be scattered more liberally throughout each round, rather than clustered close to the top as it is in first.
What I'm getting at is: things turn into a crap shoot pretty quickly in the draft. That means there isn't a lot to choose from once you get beyond the few sure-fire NHLers that exist at the very pinnacle of the prospect pyramid. This issue occurred to me while doing up profiles for potential Flames targets in this year's up coming roll of the dice - Rundblad, Kreider, Budish, Holland, Ferraro, etc - pretending all of them are available when the Flames take the stage on the 26th, which amongst those named is the "best player available"?
The challenges for an NHL scout extend beyond projecting the potential future contributions of some teenager some five years hence, but also -
1.) Comparing relative values of players across positions is problematic and rife with subjectivity and
2.) Many of these kids play at different levels in different leagues against different competition.
For example, let's talk about David Rundblad, a Swedish prospect who played as a teen in the SEL last season versus Zach Budish, an American High School winger. Rundblad garnered 10 points as a defender in the top professional level in Sweden last year against grown men. Budish collected more than 60 points in 30 games against pimply-faced HS kids in Minnesota. How does one even go about comparing the two players? Not only do they play different positions, but they performed against vastly different levels of competition - even subjective viewership and analysis would be effected. For intance, I would look like a thoughtful tactician and sniper if you put me on the ice against 12 year olds, but would be completely lost if I squared off against, say, the UofC mens team. That's an extreme example, but the principle is the same. This may be why clubs develop what I call "fishing holes", by which I mean they concentrate their scouting in certain amateur/developmental leagues (for the Flames, it's the WHL/CHL) - they can become familiar with the relative degree and value of the competition and therefore can more capably gauge a prospects level of performance. But I digress.
As such, I think it would be foolhardy to ignore an organizations areas of weakness when drafting. By that I certainly don't mean the woeful Florida Panthers should show up on the 26th this year and look to pick as many scoring forwards as possible because the big club had issues putting pucks in the net last year. That would be silly. However, simply due to the variable and unpredictable nature of developing prospects, every org is going to have certain areas that are weaker than others heading into the draft every year.
Taking the Flames again as an example, the club is relatively healthy at center and defense, but thin in terms of scoring wingers. Dustin Boyd - Warren Peters - Mikael Backlund - Mitch Wahl - Brett Sutter - John Armstrong are the young, promising pivots in the system. Calgary also has Phaneuf - Giordano - Pardy - Palin - Pelech - Aulie - Negrin - Brodie as young 20 something's and below on the blueline. However, aside from Moss and Glencross on the big club (who have already passed the quarter century mark), the org boasts overager Kyle Greentree, Greg Nemisz and tweeners like David Van Der Gulik and Kris Chucko on the wings. And that's about it.
As such, I honestly think this issue should inform if not dictate the Flames draft strategy heading into next week. We know that the org needs some offensively capable talent at the winger position. Therefore, unless they have the chance to pick Victor Hedman or perhaps Ryan Ellis in the first round, doesn't preferring a winger to a defender make sense from a Flames perspective? Back to the Rundblad and Budish example - since there's little chance of definitely determining which is the better player (either now or in the future), I would prefer the Flames emphasize the latter (Budish) over the former (Rundblad), given the clubs organizational strengths and weaknesses. In fact, considering we're dice rolling, Calgary should have a goal of claiming more wingers than defensemen and centers over the course of the 7 rounds in order to increase the chances of scoring a "hit" in that area.
Obviously clubs develop draft lists based on who-is-better-than whom and taking a 60th ranked forward ahead of the 12th ranked defender simply because the org has a greater need up front would be nonsensical. If an opportunity to choose a player who is *apparently* head and shoulders above the rest of the list occurs, it has to be taken. My guess is this seems more likely in theory than what happens in practice, however, especially due to the scouting challenges described above and especially once the cream of the crop has been skimmed. Overall, outside a few rare or extreme circumstances, I've come to think of the "BPA" draft strategy as rather meaningless and the whole "team need versus best player" dichotomy as a false one.
But outside, say, the first five choices in every entry draft, is picking the "best player available" actually possible? From my own investigations into the matter, chances of picking an actual NHL player drop from 95% in the top 5 to about a coin flip by the end of the first round. Chances fall precipitously after that, to about 25% in round 2, 19% in round 3 and so on. In fact, as the draft progresses, the talent tends to be scattered more liberally throughout each round, rather than clustered close to the top as it is in first.
What I'm getting at is: things turn into a crap shoot pretty quickly in the draft. That means there isn't a lot to choose from once you get beyond the few sure-fire NHLers that exist at the very pinnacle of the prospect pyramid. This issue occurred to me while doing up profiles for potential Flames targets in this year's up coming roll of the dice - Rundblad, Kreider, Budish, Holland, Ferraro, etc - pretending all of them are available when the Flames take the stage on the 26th, which amongst those named is the "best player available"?
The challenges for an NHL scout extend beyond projecting the potential future contributions of some teenager some five years hence, but also -
1.) Comparing relative values of players across positions is problematic and rife with subjectivity and
2.) Many of these kids play at different levels in different leagues against different competition.
For example, let's talk about David Rundblad, a Swedish prospect who played as a teen in the SEL last season versus Zach Budish, an American High School winger. Rundblad garnered 10 points as a defender in the top professional level in Sweden last year against grown men. Budish collected more than 60 points in 30 games against pimply-faced HS kids in Minnesota. How does one even go about comparing the two players? Not only do they play different positions, but they performed against vastly different levels of competition - even subjective viewership and analysis would be effected. For intance, I would look like a thoughtful tactician and sniper if you put me on the ice against 12 year olds, but would be completely lost if I squared off against, say, the UofC mens team. That's an extreme example, but the principle is the same. This may be why clubs develop what I call "fishing holes", by which I mean they concentrate their scouting in certain amateur/developmental leagues (for the Flames, it's the WHL/CHL) - they can become familiar with the relative degree and value of the competition and therefore can more capably gauge a prospects level of performance. But I digress.
As such, I think it would be foolhardy to ignore an organizations areas of weakness when drafting. By that I certainly don't mean the woeful Florida Panthers should show up on the 26th this year and look to pick as many scoring forwards as possible because the big club had issues putting pucks in the net last year. That would be silly. However, simply due to the variable and unpredictable nature of developing prospects, every org is going to have certain areas that are weaker than others heading into the draft every year.
Taking the Flames again as an example, the club is relatively healthy at center and defense, but thin in terms of scoring wingers. Dustin Boyd - Warren Peters - Mikael Backlund - Mitch Wahl - Brett Sutter - John Armstrong are the young, promising pivots in the system. Calgary also has Phaneuf - Giordano - Pardy - Palin - Pelech - Aulie - Negrin - Brodie as young 20 something's and below on the blueline. However, aside from Moss and Glencross on the big club (who have already passed the quarter century mark), the org boasts overager Kyle Greentree, Greg Nemisz and tweeners like David Van Der Gulik and Kris Chucko on the wings. And that's about it.
As such, I honestly think this issue should inform if not dictate the Flames draft strategy heading into next week. We know that the org needs some offensively capable talent at the winger position. Therefore, unless they have the chance to pick Victor Hedman or perhaps Ryan Ellis in the first round, doesn't preferring a winger to a defender make sense from a Flames perspective? Back to the Rundblad and Budish example - since there's little chance of definitely determining which is the better player (either now or in the future), I would prefer the Flames emphasize the latter (Budish) over the former (Rundblad), given the clubs organizational strengths and weaknesses. In fact, considering we're dice rolling, Calgary should have a goal of claiming more wingers than defensemen and centers over the course of the 7 rounds in order to increase the chances of scoring a "hit" in that area.
Obviously clubs develop draft lists based on who-is-better-than whom and taking a 60th ranked forward ahead of the 12th ranked defender simply because the org has a greater need up front would be nonsensical. If an opportunity to choose a player who is *apparently* head and shoulders above the rest of the list occurs, it has to be taken. My guess is this seems more likely in theory than what happens in practice, however, especially due to the scouting challenges described above and especially once the cream of the crop has been skimmed. Overall, outside a few rare or extreme circumstances, I've come to think of the "BPA" draft strategy as rather meaningless and the whole "team need versus best player" dichotomy as a false one.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Congratulations Pittsburgh
I picked Detroit, but Pittsburgh was full value in the last two games. Congrats to the 2009 Stanley Cup champions!
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
A rare link day
- As the play-offs wind down, *other* NHL news is starting to pick up again. Most significant for Flames fans is the fact the Brent Sutter announced his departure from Devils today. I have discussions going here and here, while Duncan (who wins the "best headline" contest with his effort) and Matt add their thoughts elsewhere. Take a trip to In Lou we Trust for a NJD perspective.
- Heatley apparently wants out of Ottawa. Let the rampant speculation begin! I'll get the ball rolling - Jokinen + for Heater. Flames are weak on the left side, strong up the middle and Im not a fan of Jokinen anyways. Plus Heatley is a native Calgarian. It only makes sense (E3)!
- Some of the statzis around the blogosphere have made progress in adding further context to the numbers recently. Mudcrutch discusses the effect of face-off location and offensive/defensive zone ratios. This work will likely help me in determining relative value of defensive defensemen, which is going to be a summer project round here I think. JLikens has done some work with the "scoring chance" stat Dennis King put together this past year for the Oilers. Vic has some additional material on scoring chances, SH% and the importance of possession and outshooting here.
- The scoring chance thing intrigues me and I'd like to start doing it for the Flames next year. However, I'd also like to settle on a meaningful definition of "scoring chance" which is reliable across observers before proceeding. Perhaps something else to kick around in the dull days of August...
- Finally, I think the Cup is going to be awarded (either tonight or later this week) to the Red Wings for the second straight year. Love 'em; hate 'em; envy them; you have to respect that organization whatever your perspective. Everyone else is so far behind at this point, I think Ken Holland has actually lapped the field.
- Heatley apparently wants out of Ottawa. Let the rampant speculation begin! I'll get the ball rolling - Jokinen + for Heater. Flames are weak on the left side, strong up the middle and Im not a fan of Jokinen anyways. Plus Heatley is a native Calgarian. It only makes sense (E3)!
- Some of the statzis around the blogosphere have made progress in adding further context to the numbers recently. Mudcrutch discusses the effect of face-off location and offensive/defensive zone ratios. This work will likely help me in determining relative value of defensive defensemen, which is going to be a summer project round here I think. JLikens has done some work with the "scoring chance" stat Dennis King put together this past year for the Oilers. Vic has some additional material on scoring chances, SH% and the importance of possession and outshooting here.
- The scoring chance thing intrigues me and I'd like to start doing it for the Flames next year. However, I'd also like to settle on a meaningful definition of "scoring chance" which is reliable across observers before proceeding. Perhaps something else to kick around in the dull days of August...
- Finally, I think the Cup is going to be awarded (either tonight or later this week) to the Red Wings for the second straight year. Love 'em; hate 'em; envy them; you have to respect that organization whatever your perspective. Everyone else is so far behind at this point, I think Ken Holland has actually lapped the field.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
2009 Hockey New Media Awards
I was alerted recently that "The HockeyBarn Writers Association" (a community of writers open to all hockey journalists across the blogosphere) is holding the first ever New Media Hockey awards on June 17th.
According to the press release, there'll be prizes for "Writer of the year", Rookie of the Year", "Unsung Hero" "Mom/Dad writer of the year" and, yes, even the "Glenn Anderson Leader award". Judges for the contest include the ex-Oiler himself (who will also be handing out prizes apparently), Eric McErlain of "Off the Wing" fame and the venerable James Mirtle. You can nominate a writer for any one of the prizes listed via this link.
This isn't my transparent play for a nomination. Frankly, I don't belong in the conversation of hockey's best bloggers. Were I to pick writers for each award I'd go with:
"Writer of the Year": Lowetide, Mudcrutch, Mirtle (probably exempt, being a judge), Puck Daddy, Tom Benjamin
"Rookie of the Year": Contrarian Goaltender, JLikens, Jonathan Willis (is he still a rookie?) or TLP
"Unsung Hero": Vic Ferrari, Scott from Gospel of Hockey
Mom/Dad Writer: Uhh...not familiar enough with everyone's personal life Im afraid. How about BDHS since Pat should certainly be winning something for his unique style.
Glenn Anderson Leadership Award: for the "writer who best demonstrates a desire to grow hockey the popularity of ice hockey..." Paul Kukla?
No doubt there's others Im missing here - the Battle of Cali crew and Cycle Like Sedins put out good stuff this season too. Lots of deserving "New Media" writers out there right now.
According to the press release, there'll be prizes for "Writer of the year", Rookie of the Year", "Unsung Hero" "Mom/Dad writer of the year" and, yes, even the "Glenn Anderson Leader award". Judges for the contest include the ex-Oiler himself (who will also be handing out prizes apparently), Eric McErlain of "Off the Wing" fame and the venerable James Mirtle. You can nominate a writer for any one of the prizes listed via this link.
This isn't my transparent play for a nomination. Frankly, I don't belong in the conversation of hockey's best bloggers. Were I to pick writers for each award I'd go with:
"Writer of the Year": Lowetide, Mudcrutch, Mirtle (probably exempt, being a judge), Puck Daddy, Tom Benjamin
"Rookie of the Year": Contrarian Goaltender, JLikens, Jonathan Willis (is he still a rookie?) or TLP
"Unsung Hero": Vic Ferrari, Scott from Gospel of Hockey
Mom/Dad Writer: Uhh...not familiar enough with everyone's personal life Im afraid. How about BDHS since Pat should certainly be winning something for his unique style.
Glenn Anderson Leadership Award: for the "writer who best demonstrates a desire to grow hockey the popularity of ice hockey..." Paul Kukla?
No doubt there's others Im missing here - the Battle of Cali crew and Cycle Like Sedins put out good stuff this season too. Lots of deserving "New Media" writers out there right now.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Ranked even strength production by defensemen
I did something like this for forwards awhile back and it proved to be fairly popular. So, here's a ranked (by ESP/60) list of defensemen from the regular season. I've marked Flames players in yellow. Also included are QUAL COMP ratings, corsi/60 rates, ES plus/minus and the PDO numbers of guys inside the 90th percentile (plus a few others I bothered to look up). Excluded are players that failed to play more than 30 contests this year.
**(Spreadsheet won't publish for whatever reason - here's a handy link to the numbers instead)**
Looking at this list made me wonder: is there any way to rationally and quantifiably capture the contributions of low-offense, hard minute defensemen? I mean, none of Regehr's stats are impressive at a glance, but well all know he's the best defender the team's got. The issue for me is - how good is he, really? Is there any way to know outside of "he plays the big guns on the other team consistently and doesn't seem to get killed"?
Other items of interest: Mark Giordano's standing in ESP/60 and corsi rate, the ridiculous PDO's of Boston defenders and Jason Smith apparently not scoring a single ES point the entire year.
**(Spreadsheet won't publish for whatever reason - here's a handy link to the numbers instead)**
Looking at this list made me wonder: is there any way to rationally and quantifiably capture the contributions of low-offense, hard minute defensemen? I mean, none of Regehr's stats are impressive at a glance, but well all know he's the best defender the team's got. The issue for me is - how good is he, really? Is there any way to know outside of "he plays the big guns on the other team consistently and doesn't seem to get killed"?
Other items of interest: Mark Giordano's standing in ESP/60 and corsi rate, the ridiculous PDO's of Boston defenders and Jason Smith apparently not scoring a single ES point the entire year.
What's the opposite of a prophet?
Well, the NW division's "best coach" has been fired. Again. Course, he was pretty much a dead man walking as soon as the Avs approached Roy.
What a terrible mess that once great team has become. Good news for me as a Flames fan I guess, but it's still a little sad to see nonetheless.
What a terrible mess that once great team has become. Good news for me as a Flames fan I guess, but it's still a little sad to see nonetheless.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Finals forecast
It's down to the rematch I see.
Both excellent teams this year, with Pittsburgh being a lot closer than they were previously. They don't have Hossa, but the whole club has improved leaps and bounds under Bylsma. If the puck bounces right or if the injuries favor them, they could be on the winning side this time.
That said, I still prefer Detroit. They have superior depth and have looked basically untouchable through the entire post season. Assuming Dastyuk and Lidstrom aren't out long term, I think they take it in 7.
Is there a more spoiled fan base in all sports than Red Wings supporters? I honestly don't think so.
Both excellent teams this year, with Pittsburgh being a lot closer than they were previously. They don't have Hossa, but the whole club has improved leaps and bounds under Bylsma. If the puck bounces right or if the injuries favor them, they could be on the winning side this time.
That said, I still prefer Detroit. They have superior depth and have looked basically untouchable through the entire post season. Assuming Dastyuk and Lidstrom aren't out long term, I think they take it in 7.
Is there a more spoiled fan base in all sports than Red Wings supporters? I honestly don't think so.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Anything you can do, I can do better...
Apparently, the same day the Flames will officially announce the firing of re-tread Mike Keenan, the Edmonton Oilers will be announcing hiring of re-tread Pat Quinn. I've never personally thought much of as Quinn as a coach, so this is good news - both because he's now working for the Edmonton and it means he won't be working for Calgary.
Maybe he's a good presence in the dressing room
Mirtle is reporting that the Canadiens have allegedly offered Alexei Kovalev a one year, $6M contract to stay in MTL.
Just in case you didn't know, Kovalev will turn 37 in February and settled right back into his 65 point career normal pace this season after some percentages and bounces on the PP made him seem like a demi-god in 07/08. He didn't even top 2.00 ESP/60 this year and his corsi was a negative one (in fact, marginally worse than Plekanec, Lang, Higgins, Koivu, Latendresse and Andrei Kostitsyn). He was decent again with the man advantage (5.25 PPP/60) but not so mind-blowingly good that it in any way validates 6 large. He led Montreal in points but probably only he played a bunch while Lang, Koivu and Tanguay missed huge chunks of time to injury.
In short, Gainey is either truly desperate or...well, I'm not sure how else to explain this offer. Personally, I don't even know if I'd pay Kovalev half that amount.
Just in case you didn't know, Kovalev will turn 37 in February and settled right back into his 65 point career normal pace this season after some percentages and bounces on the PP made him seem like a demi-god in 07/08. He didn't even top 2.00 ESP/60 this year and his corsi was a negative one (in fact, marginally worse than Plekanec, Lang, Higgins, Koivu, Latendresse and Andrei Kostitsyn). He was decent again with the man advantage (5.25 PPP/60) but not so mind-blowingly good that it in any way validates 6 large. He led Montreal in points but probably only he played a bunch while Lang, Koivu and Tanguay missed huge chunks of time to injury.
In short, Gainey is either truly desperate or...well, I'm not sure how else to explain this offer. Personally, I don't even know if I'd pay Kovalev half that amount.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Is it safe?
So apparently Pierre McGuire is a finalist for the Wild GM position. If he lands the job, does anyone else picture his entry discussions with players playing out like the infamous Marathon Man scene:
McGuire: "Do you get it?"
Player: "Get what?"
McGuire: "Do you get it?"
Player: "I don't now what you mean."
McGuire: "Do you JUST get IT?"
Player: "I can't tell you if I get it until you tell me what 'it' is."
McGuire: "Do you get it?"
Player: "Yes, yes I get it completely."
McGuire: *quietly* "Do you get it?"
Player: "No. I guess I don't really get it at all."
McGuire: *reaches for sharp torture implements*
UPDATE - Damn. Apparently it's going to be Chuck Fletcher.
McGuire: "Do you get it?"
Player: "Get what?"
McGuire: "Do you get it?"
Player: "I don't now what you mean."
McGuire: "Do you JUST get IT?"
Player: "I can't tell you if I get it until you tell me what 'it' is."
McGuire: "Do you get it?"
Player: "Yes, yes I get it completely."
McGuire: *quietly* "Do you get it?"
Player: "No. I guess I don't really get it at all."
McGuire: *reaches for sharp torture implements*
UPDATE - Damn. Apparently it's going to be Chuck Fletcher.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Question for regular readers of this space...
...is Richard Pollock cribbing me or do we just think really, really similarly? Read the linked article and then take a gander at some of my old stuff.
Post journalism, revisited
Being involved as I am in "new media", I'm captivated by the changes and upheavals going on in the MSM and classic journalism. A few months ago, I shared a lengthy dissertation on the subject by Kevin Carson.
In a similar vein, here's a recent op-ed piece by Professor Robert Picard on what's killing the old guard:
To comprehend journalistic value creation, we need to focus on the benefits it provides. Journalism creates functional, emotional, and self-expressive benefits for consumers. Functional benefits include providing useful information and ideas...
These benefits used to produce significant economic value. Not today. That's because producers and providers have less control over the communication space than ever before. In the past, the difficulty and cost of operation, publication, and distribution severely limited the number of content suppliers. This scarcity raised the economic value of content. That additional value is gone today because a far wider range of sources of news and information exist.
The primary value that is created today comes from the basic underlying value of the labor of journalists. Unfortunately, that value is now near zero.
...
Today, ordinary adults can observe and report news, gather expert knowledge, determine significance, add audio, photography, and video components, and publish this content far and wide (or at least to their social network) with ease. And much of this is done for no pay.
...
Unfortunately, journalistic labor has become commoditized. Most journalists share the same skills sets and the same approaches to stories, seek out the same sources, ask similar questions, and produce relatively similar stories[...]Across the news industry, processes and procedures for news gathering are guided by standardized news values, producing standardized stories in standardized formats that are presented in standardized styles. The result is extraordinary sameness and minimal differentiation.
With this stuff in mind, take gander at Robin Brownlee's defense of Darren Dreger today over at Flamesnation. All of his points about protecting sources, the fluidity of deals in the NHL and the need to present information "now" in order to feed demand and avoid being scooped are all probably fair given the landscape these guys operate in. Which is often why I find so little value in what is produced via this method. I think the criticism of Dreger's fluff piece and Brownlee's resultant protestations are probably both simultaneously valid. '"N" is the best we can do under "X", "Y" and "Z" conditions' doesn't change the fact that "N" (to my mind, at least) is pap. "You're doing it wrong" is my response, even if I'm somewhat sympathetic to the circumstances.
There's a push by the overlords at my other place to get accreditation for the various contracted bloggers. While I wish them well in their endeavors, the possibility holds absolutely no interest for me whatsoever.
In a similar vein, here's a recent op-ed piece by Professor Robert Picard on what's killing the old guard:
To comprehend journalistic value creation, we need to focus on the benefits it provides. Journalism creates functional, emotional, and self-expressive benefits for consumers. Functional benefits include providing useful information and ideas...
These benefits used to produce significant economic value. Not today. That's because producers and providers have less control over the communication space than ever before. In the past, the difficulty and cost of operation, publication, and distribution severely limited the number of content suppliers. This scarcity raised the economic value of content. That additional value is gone today because a far wider range of sources of news and information exist.
The primary value that is created today comes from the basic underlying value of the labor of journalists. Unfortunately, that value is now near zero.
...
Today, ordinary adults can observe and report news, gather expert knowledge, determine significance, add audio, photography, and video components, and publish this content far and wide (or at least to their social network) with ease. And much of this is done for no pay.
...
Unfortunately, journalistic labor has become commoditized. Most journalists share the same skills sets and the same approaches to stories, seek out the same sources, ask similar questions, and produce relatively similar stories[...]Across the news industry, processes and procedures for news gathering are guided by standardized news values, producing standardized stories in standardized formats that are presented in standardized styles. The result is extraordinary sameness and minimal differentiation.
With this stuff in mind, take gander at Robin Brownlee's defense of Darren Dreger today over at Flamesnation. All of his points about protecting sources, the fluidity of deals in the NHL and the need to present information "now" in order to feed demand and avoid being scooped are all probably fair given the landscape these guys operate in. Which is often why I find so little value in what is produced via this method. I think the criticism of Dreger's fluff piece and Brownlee's resultant protestations are probably both simultaneously valid. '"N" is the best we can do under "X", "Y" and "Z" conditions' doesn't change the fact that "N" (to my mind, at least) is pap. "You're doing it wrong" is my response, even if I'm somewhat sympathetic to the circumstances.
There's a push by the overlords at my other place to get accreditation for the various contracted bloggers. While I wish them well in their endeavors, the possibility holds absolutely no interest for me whatsoever.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Round 3
Im a bit late and my predictions thus far have been *ahem* a little off, but why watch the post season if you can't be wrong about who's going to win?
DET vs. CHI
Im nothing but impressed with the Blackhawks thus far. That said, they're playing the team they can only hope they grow into. Detroit has looked every bit the Stanley Cup champion in these play-offs and I fully expect them to make the finals again. CHI has the upper hand in net, but so did CBJ and ANA.
Wings in 6.
PIT vs. CAR
The Canes have really messed up my predictions this year. I thought they were a better team than they showed during the regular season (their percentages were crap for a long time) but I honestly don't know how they've gotten to this point.
The Penguins on the other hand beat the crap out of the Capitals, which is no small feat. The turn around under Bylsma is a real one, making the Pens a legit contender.
Pits in 7.
Whatever the outcome, I expect whoever comes out of the West to beat whoever comes out of the east this year; neither EC club has the sort of forward or defensive depth boasted by Chicago or Detroit. It'll take a run of injuries or a great run of bounces to deliver the cup to the East this season methinks.
DET vs. CHI
Im nothing but impressed with the Blackhawks thus far. That said, they're playing the team they can only hope they grow into. Detroit has looked every bit the Stanley Cup champion in these play-offs and I fully expect them to make the finals again. CHI has the upper hand in net, but so did CBJ and ANA.
Wings in 6.
PIT vs. CAR
The Canes have really messed up my predictions this year. I thought they were a better team than they showed during the regular season (their percentages were crap for a long time) but I honestly don't know how they've gotten to this point.
The Penguins on the other hand beat the crap out of the Capitals, which is no small feat. The turn around under Bylsma is a real one, making the Pens a legit contender.
Pits in 7.
Whatever the outcome, I expect whoever comes out of the West to beat whoever comes out of the east this year; neither EC club has the sort of forward or defensive depth boasted by Chicago or Detroit. It'll take a run of injuries or a great run of bounces to deliver the cup to the East this season methinks.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Evidence mounts
Last summer I wrote a little piece on the value of drafting goaltenders. I was less sure of my conclusions then, but I've become more confident of my position as time has passed. The support the analysis has received from a number of people I consider bright hasn't hurt either.
On that note, Richard Pollock published a piece at Puck Prospectus today that echoes my thoughts on the matter pretty closely:
Half the netminders who were considered their team’s starters in the NHL this season were drafted in rounds many consider to be a crapshoot. In fact, five goalies were drafted in the eighth and ninth rounds (rounds which do not even exist anymore). So, in effect, there are as many goalies starting in the NHL that were drafted in the first round, as there are goalies who (by today’s draft rules) wouldn’t have been drafted at all (a.k.a.—undrafted free agents).
Actually, three goalies who were not even drafted (Backstrom, Roloson and Hiller) had dramatic effects on their team’s play to close this past season. Backstrom was nominated for the Vezina Trophy, Dwayne Roloson played almost every game for the Oilers in the second half of the season and Jonas Hiller has continued his strong regular season play with tremendous playoff play.
...
Considering the cost, or lack thereof, of making such a selection, I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams look for diamonds in the rough more often than drafting a goaltender with a first round selection.
Next time your team is considering drafting a goaltender in the first round, maybe they should instead try to sign Swedish free agent netminder Jonas Gustavsson.
Sounds about right.
On that note, Richard Pollock published a piece at Puck Prospectus today that echoes my thoughts on the matter pretty closely:
Half the netminders who were considered their team’s starters in the NHL this season were drafted in rounds many consider to be a crapshoot. In fact, five goalies were drafted in the eighth and ninth rounds (rounds which do not even exist anymore). So, in effect, there are as many goalies starting in the NHL that were drafted in the first round, as there are goalies who (by today’s draft rules) wouldn’t have been drafted at all (a.k.a.—undrafted free agents).
Actually, three goalies who were not even drafted (Backstrom, Roloson and Hiller) had dramatic effects on their team’s play to close this past season. Backstrom was nominated for the Vezina Trophy, Dwayne Roloson played almost every game for the Oilers in the second half of the season and Jonas Hiller has continued his strong regular season play with tremendous playoff play.
...
Considering the cost, or lack thereof, of making such a selection, I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams look for diamonds in the rough more often than drafting a goaltender with a first round selection.
Next time your team is considering drafting a goaltender in the first round, maybe they should instead try to sign Swedish free agent netminder Jonas Gustavsson.
Sounds about right.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Tracking Kevin Lalande
Lost amidst the other, far more immediately relevant deals this past deadline day was a fairly innocuous swap between the Calgary Flames and the Columbus Blue Jackets: Calgary moved Kevin Lalande for a 4th round draft pick. At the time, I was surprised the Flames managed to get anything as high as a 4th rounder for what was a at the time an ECHL goalie who had been previously drafted in the 5th round. Seemed like a steal, even when the return was so modest.
The Blue Jackets installed Lalande as their AHL starter (since their previous starter and back-up were up in the NHL at the time) and he promptly won 3 straight games and was named AHL player of the week. Since then, I've kept a closer eye on the former Flames property and am starting to come to the shakey conclusion that Calgary may have traded away their best goaltending prospect.
First, some background. Lalande spent 3 seasons in the OHL with the Bellville Bulls. His SV% over those three years was consistently good to excellent: .920, .916 and .919. He finished 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the OHL in terms of SV% in each of those years respectively. In 04/05, his rookie season, his .920 SV% was the best of any freshman puck stopper in the league. He was named to the all-star team in 05/06.
His first few games as a pro didn't go so well for Kevin and may be the reason he was relegated to a third stringer by the organization. In 7 games for Quad Cities, he won just twice and stopped just 88.8% of the pucks he saw. That was last year, most of which he spent in the ECHL with the Las Vegas Wranglers, where he put up far more respectable numbers over a longer period (.932 SV% in 27 games played). Since then, Lalande has managed sparkling percentages where ever he's played: ECHL (.925 SV%), Quad Cities (.929 SV%) and Syracuse (.927 SV%).
What's significant is, as far as I can tell, neither the QC Flames nor SYR Crunch were good teams this season. The former placed 5th in the West Division and had a GD of -4. The latter were 5th in the North Division and actually worse defensively, allowing 10 more goals against than the Flames and had a nominally worse GD (-12). So it's not like he was playing behind juggernauts that were limiting the opposition to perimeter shots and winning each game by 4.
In addition, Lalande outperformed all his peers this season. No other Flames 'tender posted an equal or better SV% than Lalande. Ditto Syracuse, aside from Calder shoe-in Steve Mason who played a mere 3 games in the minors before being called up to save the Blue Jackets season.
Now, to some degree, I'm reading tea leaves here: Lalande hasn't even seen 1000 shots at the AHL at this point in his career, so we're talking small sample, potential for misleading results, yadda yadda yadda. Still, looking at Lalande's results both past and present shows a lot of arrows pointing in the right direction. And while Im not big on the value of goalie prospects in the first place, I find it's generally a good rule to try to keep the best ones around. Of course, maybe he's just a really, really good Junior/ECHL/AHL goalie and little else. Something to keep an eye on, anyways.
The Blue Jackets installed Lalande as their AHL starter (since their previous starter and back-up were up in the NHL at the time) and he promptly won 3 straight games and was named AHL player of the week. Since then, I've kept a closer eye on the former Flames property and am starting to come to the shakey conclusion that Calgary may have traded away their best goaltending prospect.
First, some background. Lalande spent 3 seasons in the OHL with the Bellville Bulls. His SV% over those three years was consistently good to excellent: .920, .916 and .919. He finished 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the OHL in terms of SV% in each of those years respectively. In 04/05, his rookie season, his .920 SV% was the best of any freshman puck stopper in the league. He was named to the all-star team in 05/06.
His first few games as a pro didn't go so well for Kevin and may be the reason he was relegated to a third stringer by the organization. In 7 games for Quad Cities, he won just twice and stopped just 88.8% of the pucks he saw. That was last year, most of which he spent in the ECHL with the Las Vegas Wranglers, where he put up far more respectable numbers over a longer period (.932 SV% in 27 games played). Since then, Lalande has managed sparkling percentages where ever he's played: ECHL (.925 SV%), Quad Cities (.929 SV%) and Syracuse (.927 SV%).
What's significant is, as far as I can tell, neither the QC Flames nor SYR Crunch were good teams this season. The former placed 5th in the West Division and had a GD of -4. The latter were 5th in the North Division and actually worse defensively, allowing 10 more goals against than the Flames and had a nominally worse GD (-12). So it's not like he was playing behind juggernauts that were limiting the opposition to perimeter shots and winning each game by 4.
In addition, Lalande outperformed all his peers this season. No other Flames 'tender posted an equal or better SV% than Lalande. Ditto Syracuse, aside from Calder shoe-in Steve Mason who played a mere 3 games in the minors before being called up to save the Blue Jackets season.
Now, to some degree, I'm reading tea leaves here: Lalande hasn't even seen 1000 shots at the AHL at this point in his career, so we're talking small sample, potential for misleading results, yadda yadda yadda. Still, looking at Lalande's results both past and present shows a lot of arrows pointing in the right direction. And while Im not big on the value of goalie prospects in the first place, I find it's generally a good rule to try to keep the best ones around. Of course, maybe he's just a really, really good Junior/ECHL/AHL goalie and little else. Something to keep an eye on, anyways.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Clarification (sorta)
In looking at the Flames seasonal percentages, I noticed that Vic's timeonice app was delivering a different ES SV% than the one stated in Desjardins study. In fact, the underlying shot and goal totals were different for each. Vic's site had Kipper seeing about 170 more shots and allowing three more goals than what Desjardins accounted for. As a result, Kipper comes out with a better SV% (90.9) in the former.
Unable to resolve the differences myself, I emailed Desjardins for some clarification. His response was:
Some possible differences:
- Vic includes 4-on-4 and 3-on-3 (this is certainly the biggest difference)
- Vic uses just the NHL.com data; in order for me to get shot
location, I need to combine ESPN with nhl.com. I've audited it in the
past and it looks like they have the same dataset, but there are some
mismatches
- Vic determines the number of skaters directly from the NHL.com
play-by-play (PL) whereas I pull it from the TOI charts (TV and TH).
For whatever reason, they're different.
- Neither one of us includes empty nets
So, seems to be differences in category and reporting source. Technically, then, Kipper's SV% at behind the net (89.9) is his "true" 5on5 save rate (as close as we can get with the data in question, I guess), while Vic's site is Kipper's "true" even-strength SV% across all such variants of that condition.
As of right now, I'm unsure which should be consider more reflective of a goalie's ability.
Unable to resolve the differences myself, I emailed Desjardins for some clarification. His response was:
Some possible differences:
- Vic includes 4-on-4 and 3-on-3 (this is certainly the biggest difference)
- Vic uses just the NHL.com data; in order for me to get shot
location, I need to combine ESPN with nhl.com. I've audited it in the
past and it looks like they have the same dataset, but there are some
mismatches
- Vic determines the number of skaters directly from the NHL.com
play-by-play (PL) whereas I pull it from the TOI charts (TV and TH).
For whatever reason, they're different.
- Neither one of us includes empty nets
So, seems to be differences in category and reporting source. Technically, then, Kipper's SV% at behind the net (89.9) is his "true" 5on5 save rate (as close as we can get with the data in question, I guess), while Vic's site is Kipper's "true" even-strength SV% across all such variants of that condition.
As of right now, I'm unsure which should be consider more reflective of a goalie's ability.
I should leave it to the wheel spinning Monkey
I was going to do a rudimentary run through of my largely inaccurate first round predictions (en route to delivering what will be my inaccurate second round predictions), but a reader emailed me a much more thorough and interesting spreadsheet yesterday.
This is a "prediction scorecard" comparing various local media guys, including Dowbiggen, Kerr, myself, etc. As you can see, I didn't fare all that well. The only series I nailed was, appropriately enough, Flames/Hawks. My worst call was the CBJ/DET series, obviously, an error made because I was overly influenced by the Flames final games against those two teams I think: in the final match versus DET, the Flames cruised to a victory thanks to horrendous goaltending by Osgood. In the other, Calgary was fundamentally dominated by the Jackets and lost 4-0 (it could have been 8-0).
Anyways, on to the second round! Please don't use these picks to gamble...
WC
DET v ANA
The Red Wings overwhelmed the Blue Jackets and Osgood held up through the first three games. However, Hiller has been excellent this year and was one of the primary reasons the Ducks upset the Sharks. Clearly, ANA doesn't have the kind of depth that can compete with DET, but their first line is excellent and their top 4 defensemen are strong. All that said, I the Wings taught me a lesson about picking a much lower seed over them in the first round.
DET in 7.
VAN v CHI
Both clubs have impressed me thus far. The Blackhawks are a three line deep club and their top defensive pairing is top notch. On the other hand, Luongo has been out of his mind for a long period of time now, so the Canucks have an obvious edge in net. CHI won't be scoring 4 goals on 16 shots in this series. Also - the Sedins and Kesler are legit.
VAN in 6.
EC
BOS v CAR
I don't know if anyone in the East can stop the Bruins. They've had the blessing of the hockey gods this year, as well as the leading Vezina candidate in net, an excellent coach and several lines of dangerous forwards. The Hurricanes did well to get past the Devils and Ward is the real deal these days, but...Boston is just too strong.
BOS in 6.
WAS v PIT
This might be the series to watch in round two. Malkin/Crosby versus Ovechkin/Semin. Four of the leagues best ES forwards during the regular season going head to head. With Varlamov giving the Caps competent goaltending, they don't really have a glaring weakness anymore. I certainly like their forward depth more than the Pens, whose scoring list goes something like this: Malkin, Crosby .............................Kunitz, Guerin, Staal. That said, the Penguins have been a different (better) team under Bylsma. Should be a close one.
WAS in 7.
EDIT - Oddly, I'm doing well in my amateurs vs pros (The Score talking heads) pick 'em pool after round one. Leader Hockey Jackass has the scoreboard here (I sat tied for 2nd as of yesterday, although the Devils loss probably hurt me).
This is a "prediction scorecard" comparing various local media guys, including Dowbiggen, Kerr, myself, etc. As you can see, I didn't fare all that well. The only series I nailed was, appropriately enough, Flames/Hawks. My worst call was the CBJ/DET series, obviously, an error made because I was overly influenced by the Flames final games against those two teams I think: in the final match versus DET, the Flames cruised to a victory thanks to horrendous goaltending by Osgood. In the other, Calgary was fundamentally dominated by the Jackets and lost 4-0 (it could have been 8-0).
Anyways, on to the second round! Please don't use these picks to gamble...
WC
DET v ANA
The Red Wings overwhelmed the Blue Jackets and Osgood held up through the first three games. However, Hiller has been excellent this year and was one of the primary reasons the Ducks upset the Sharks. Clearly, ANA doesn't have the kind of depth that can compete with DET, but their first line is excellent and their top 4 defensemen are strong. All that said, I the Wings taught me a lesson about picking a much lower seed over them in the first round.
DET in 7.
VAN v CHI
Both clubs have impressed me thus far. The Blackhawks are a three line deep club and their top defensive pairing is top notch. On the other hand, Luongo has been out of his mind for a long period of time now, so the Canucks have an obvious edge in net. CHI won't be scoring 4 goals on 16 shots in this series. Also - the Sedins and Kesler are legit.
VAN in 6.
EC
BOS v CAR
I don't know if anyone in the East can stop the Bruins. They've had the blessing of the hockey gods this year, as well as the leading Vezina candidate in net, an excellent coach and several lines of dangerous forwards. The Hurricanes did well to get past the Devils and Ward is the real deal these days, but...Boston is just too strong.
BOS in 6.
WAS v PIT
This might be the series to watch in round two. Malkin/Crosby versus Ovechkin/Semin. Four of the leagues best ES forwards during the regular season going head to head. With Varlamov giving the Caps competent goaltending, they don't really have a glaring weakness anymore. I certainly like their forward depth more than the Pens, whose scoring list goes something like this: Malkin, Crosby .............................Kunitz, Guerin, Staal. That said, the Penguins have been a different (better) team under Bylsma. Should be a close one.
WAS in 7.
EDIT - Oddly, I'm doing well in my amateurs vs pros (The Score talking heads) pick 'em pool after round one. Leader Hockey Jackass has the scoreboard here (I sat tied for 2nd as of yesterday, although the Devils loss probably hurt me).
Monday, April 27, 2009
Kipper expected versus actual
Mirtle alerted me to the fact that Desjardins has published his yearly look at actual performance versus expected for goalies (based on these criteria).
James has the league wide run down, but of course it's Miikka we're mostly concerned with around here.
And regular readers of the space can likely predict the outcome of Gabe's analysis. Keep in mind this is ES only (and Kipper actually excelled SH this year, relative to other game states):
Kipper:
Actual SV% - 89.9
Expected SV% - 90.8
Diff - (-0.9%)
Actual GAA - 2.68
Expected GAA - 2.44
Diff - (+0.24)
Of all the NHL goalies that played this season, only Raycroft, Budaj, Legace and Lalime under-performed their expected GAA to a greater degree than Kipper according to this process. Toskala and Ersberg tied with Kiprusoff at +.24. The delta between his expected SV% and actual also placed him at the bottom of the list - tied with Marty Turco and ahead of only the Colorado tenders, Ersberg, Toskala, Legace and Lalime.
In theory, this analysis factors out team effects. Kipper's "expected stats" are based on the quality of shots he faced behind the Flames defense. His expected SV% of 90.9 placed him in the middle of the pack (tied with the likes of Chris Mason, Dwayne Roloson and Craig Anderson), so it's certainly arguable that the Flames didn't get good bang for the buck out of their pricey blueline this season. Still, it's not like he managed to outperform the club's mediocrity. If anything, he sank them to lower depths.
I hypothesized last summer that we'd see something like this out of Kipper this season based on his steadily declining stats, although looking at stuff like this now I'm still slightly surprised at how far he's slipped. The Flames probably didn't even really get replacement level performance out of him this season - and he's signed for another five more years. The question now becomes: is this as low as he goes?
James has the league wide run down, but of course it's Miikka we're mostly concerned with around here.
And regular readers of the space can likely predict the outcome of Gabe's analysis. Keep in mind this is ES only (and Kipper actually excelled SH this year, relative to other game states):
Kipper:
Actual SV% - 89.9
Expected SV% - 90.8
Diff - (-0.9%)
Actual GAA - 2.68
Expected GAA - 2.44
Diff - (+0.24)
Of all the NHL goalies that played this season, only Raycroft, Budaj, Legace and Lalime under-performed their expected GAA to a greater degree than Kipper according to this process. Toskala and Ersberg tied with Kiprusoff at +.24. The delta between his expected SV% and actual also placed him at the bottom of the list - tied with Marty Turco and ahead of only the Colorado tenders, Ersberg, Toskala, Legace and Lalime.
In theory, this analysis factors out team effects. Kipper's "expected stats" are based on the quality of shots he faced behind the Flames defense. His expected SV% of 90.9 placed him in the middle of the pack (tied with the likes of Chris Mason, Dwayne Roloson and Craig Anderson), so it's certainly arguable that the Flames didn't get good bang for the buck out of their pricey blueline this season. Still, it's not like he managed to outperform the club's mediocrity. If anything, he sank them to lower depths.
I hypothesized last summer that we'd see something like this out of Kipper this season based on his steadily declining stats, although looking at stuff like this now I'm still slightly surprised at how far he's slipped. The Flames probably didn't even really get replacement level performance out of him this season - and he's signed for another five more years. The question now becomes: is this as low as he goes?
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Amatuers vs the pros
The Score invited me to compete in a "bloggers versus talking head experts" pick 'em challenge for the post-season. Naturally, I accepted, along with all the other Score network bloggers. Points will be based on choosing winners and series lengths. Who is the best monkey-wheel-spinner amongst us you think?
Fantasy Hockey Scouts has more details here.
Fantasy Hockey Scouts has more details here.
This probably sounds familiar to Flames fans...
Risebrough fired.
And deservedly so, I think.
Riser wasn't terrible as the Wild's GM, but he was totally unable to make them anything more than a mediocre club. I think Lemaire's coaching hid a lot of roster weaknesses as well.
He mishandled the Gaborik situation this year, exacerbated by the (completely predictable) injury problems the sniper suffered through. From where I sit, Risebrough acted like a GM perpetually gun-shy: he was typically inactive or minimally active when it came to free agents or the trade deadline. Perhaps the notorious Gilmour/Leeman deal made him risk averse...
And deservedly so, I think.
Riser wasn't terrible as the Wild's GM, but he was totally unable to make them anything more than a mediocre club. I think Lemaire's coaching hid a lot of roster weaknesses as well.
He mishandled the Gaborik situation this year, exacerbated by the (completely predictable) injury problems the sniper suffered through. From where I sit, Risebrough acted like a GM perpetually gun-shy: he was typically inactive or minimally active when it came to free agents or the trade deadline. Perhaps the notorious Gilmour/Leeman deal made him risk averse...
good teams, bad goalies, costly decisions?
Heading into the first round here, there's going to be a couple of pretty good teams relying on some pretty bad goaltending to get them through the post season. The three that leap to mind are Calgary (Kipper, .903 SV%), Washington (Theodore, .900 SV%) and Detroit (Osgood, .887 SV%). They were 32nd, 40th and 45th in terms of league ranking by SV% respectively during the regular season.
In the Flames case, they have no choice. In 6 appearances this year back-up Curtis McElhinney didn't fair any better than Kiprusoff. As much as I think the kid got the shaft this season and is potentially better than his results, there aren't any arrows to indicate he could outperform the incumbent.
That isn't really true in the other two cases however. Watching Theodore lose the game for the Capitals last night really brought this home for me - the guy probably isn't even playing at replacement level for that club. Here's his stats line via Hockey Numbers:
Theordore - 2.87 GAA, .900 SV%, .897 SQN% (shot quality neutral save percentage), 28.7 SA/60
Now, here are his back-ups numbers:
Brent Johnson - 2.81 GAA, .908 SV%, .902 SQN%, 30.7 SA/60
Simeon Varlamov - 2.37 GAA, .918 SV%, .917 SQN%, 29 SA/60
Mikael Neuvirth - 3.00 GAA, .892 SV%, .871 SQN%, 27.8 SA/60
Varlamov and Neuvirth are rookies (which were discussed briefly here). They only played 9 games combined, so there's sample issues here. Johnson's number are marginally better than Theodore's results and he played in 19 games this season before being felled by injury.
Still, the only guy Theodore outperformed this season was Neuvirth (whose numbers have fallen steadily since his draft season. I don't think he's the prospect the Caps hoped he'd be). Despite being the "more experienced" - and far more expensive goaltender - there's lots of reasons to think that Theodore is actually the wrong choice to go with here. However, given their investment in him (4.5M through next season) and the general animus towards rookies in the post-season, I'm guessing it's "Jose or bust!" for the Caps. It may prove to be very costly, since I think the Capitals could be major contenders for the cup with merely competent netminding.
The Osgood thing is even less defensible. He's been worse than Theodore on arguably a better team and Detroit has an older, experienced and proven alternative in Conklin. "He's done it before" is the rationale I keep hearing on choosing Osgood as the starter for the play-offs, but Im guessing that will go out the window pretty quickly if he starts (rather, continues) to suck. The same issue cropped up during Hasek's last stint in Motown and the club did the right thing (ran with the better goaltender at the time) in the end.
Course one of these guys might get hot, rendering all this moot. The hockey gods routinely give the touch one or two guys every post season and it's often impossible to predict who it'll be. Personally I hope it Kipper but I'm not going to hold my breath...
In the Flames case, they have no choice. In 6 appearances this year back-up Curtis McElhinney didn't fair any better than Kiprusoff. As much as I think the kid got the shaft this season and is potentially better than his results, there aren't any arrows to indicate he could outperform the incumbent.
That isn't really true in the other two cases however. Watching Theodore lose the game for the Capitals last night really brought this home for me - the guy probably isn't even playing at replacement level for that club. Here's his stats line via Hockey Numbers:
Theordore - 2.87 GAA, .900 SV%, .897 SQN% (shot quality neutral save percentage), 28.7 SA/60
Now, here are his back-ups numbers:
Brent Johnson - 2.81 GAA, .908 SV%, .902 SQN%, 30.7 SA/60
Simeon Varlamov - 2.37 GAA, .918 SV%, .917 SQN%, 29 SA/60
Mikael Neuvirth - 3.00 GAA, .892 SV%, .871 SQN%, 27.8 SA/60
Varlamov and Neuvirth are rookies (which were discussed briefly here). They only played 9 games combined, so there's sample issues here. Johnson's number are marginally better than Theodore's results and he played in 19 games this season before being felled by injury.
Still, the only guy Theodore outperformed this season was Neuvirth (whose numbers have fallen steadily since his draft season. I don't think he's the prospect the Caps hoped he'd be). Despite being the "more experienced" - and far more expensive goaltender - there's lots of reasons to think that Theodore is actually the wrong choice to go with here. However, given their investment in him (4.5M through next season) and the general animus towards rookies in the post-season, I'm guessing it's "Jose or bust!" for the Caps. It may prove to be very costly, since I think the Capitals could be major contenders for the cup with merely competent netminding.
The Osgood thing is even less defensible. He's been worse than Theodore on arguably a better team and Detroit has an older, experienced and proven alternative in Conklin. "He's done it before" is the rationale I keep hearing on choosing Osgood as the starter for the play-offs, but Im guessing that will go out the window pretty quickly if he starts (rather, continues) to suck. The same issue cropped up during Hasek's last stint in Motown and the club did the right thing (ran with the better goaltender at the time) in the end.
Course one of these guys might get hot, rendering all this moot. The hockey gods routinely give the touch one or two guys every post season and it's often impossible to predict who it'll be. Personally I hope it Kipper but I'm not going to hold my breath...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
A new bookmark for Flames fans
It was bad news a few months ago when Jean Lefebvre announced he would no longer be covering the Flames for the Calgary Herald. As much as I rag on MSM types around here, the truth of the matter is there are quality people in the biz and Jean was (is) one of them.
And now, thanks to the driven chaps of the burgeoning Nation sites, Jean is back writing about the Flames. His first post - a series preview - went up today and is worth checking out.
Make sure to swing by. The Flames blogosphere is still rather sparse (moreso now that Matt is in semi-retirement) so it's a red letter day when our rather meager community adds a heavy hitter.
And now, thanks to the driven chaps of the burgeoning Nation sites, Jean is back writing about the Flames. His first post - a series preview - went up today and is worth checking out.
Make sure to swing by. The Flames blogosphere is still rather sparse (moreso now that Matt is in semi-retirement) so it's a red letter day when our rather meager community adds a heavy hitter.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Let's get linking
I haven't done a round-up in awhile. Here are some of the sites earning my attention this morning.
- Calgary Sun has launched their own MSM blog-type thing for the Flames. It'll go up in the sidebar in short order. Today's news? The Flames have re-called Anders Eriksson. Ugh.
- The Giguere era is over in Colorado. In other news, Jacques Martin and Don Waddell are still employed.
- James rates the first round match-ups at Cycle Like the Sedins.
- Eric Francis column this morning isn't really worth the read aside from this comment near the bottom:
There is indeed egg on Sutter's face for scoffing at media types who wondered how he made the deal fit into the cap in the first place. His words at the time, "It's not even close -- you guys have no idea." Word is the Flames were within hundreds of dollars of the US$56.7 million salary cap.
- Pensblog alerted me to this NHL play-off bracket contest. Have at 'er handicappers.
- My first post on the impeding ouster of the Flames at the hands of a Blackhawks went up today as well.
- On that hubristic note, I ended up claiming first place in the Mirtle's blogger invitational hockey pool this year. I basically went wire-to-wire on the back of some good gambles (Koivu, Semin, Burrows, Mason, Pavelski) and some good luck in terms of injury. Ironically, my club didn't even have one scorer inside the NHL's top 15 (Eric Staal and Semin were my two best).
The competition was fierce, featuring some really top-notch hockey guys, so I'm stunned I managed to hang on till the end.
- Calgary Sun has launched their own MSM blog-type thing for the Flames. It'll go up in the sidebar in short order. Today's news? The Flames have re-called Anders Eriksson. Ugh.
- The Giguere era is over in Colorado. In other news, Jacques Martin and Don Waddell are still employed.
- James rates the first round match-ups at Cycle Like the Sedins.
- Eric Francis column this morning isn't really worth the read aside from this comment near the bottom:
There is indeed egg on Sutter's face for scoffing at media types who wondered how he made the deal fit into the cap in the first place. His words at the time, "It's not even close -- you guys have no idea." Word is the Flames were within hundreds of dollars of the US$56.7 million salary cap.
- Pensblog alerted me to this NHL play-off bracket contest. Have at 'er handicappers.
- My first post on the impeding ouster of the Flames at the hands of a Blackhawks went up today as well.
- On that hubristic note, I ended up claiming first place in the Mirtle's blogger invitational hockey pool this year. I basically went wire-to-wire on the back of some good gambles (Koivu, Semin, Burrows, Mason, Pavelski) and some good luck in terms of injury. Ironically, my club didn't even have one scorer inside the NHL's top 15 (Eric Staal and Semin were my two best).
The competition was fierce, featuring some really top-notch hockey guys, so I'm stunned I managed to hang on till the end.
I got your predictions right here.
The match-ups are set and the real season begins on Wednesday. That of course means a totally meaningless prediction post!
WC
SJS - ANA
This should be an interesting series. San Jose was obviously the better team through most of the season, but the Ducks have really started to come on lately. The Sharks have the greater depth, but I might take Perry/Getzlaf/Ryan as the strongest single trio out of any of the forward groups. And Hiller might be the better goalie.
That said, it's hard to argue against the Presidents Trophy winners. They were the top team in the league for a reason.
Sharks in 7.
DET - CBJ
Looks like a mis-match, no doubt, but I think the Red Wings would have liked to avoid Columbus in the first round. Detroit is exploitable because of their goaltending and the BJ's Hickcockian coaching strategy might be able to take advantage.
Columbus in 7.
VCR - STL
Flames fans...take a look at the favorable first round match-up your team pissed away. Not to take anything away from the Blues - their run and subsequent placing in the WC is remarkable - but they are probably the weakest team in a play-off position. Partially because they're so young, partially because of their injury issues and partially because their run was predicated on goaltending and bounces. One loss against the Edmonton Oilers turned a first round series with home ice advantage versus the St. Louis Blues into an away series versus the Chicago Blackhawks.
Yes, the regular season matters.
Vancouver in 5
CHI - CGY
Im obviously going to be writing a bunch more on this series in the next few days. Let's just say, the Flames record against CHI and their performance the last few weeks has been...disquieting.
Chicago in 6.
EC
BOS - MTL
Boston is a quality team that has been smiled upon by the hockey gods all year. Tim Thomas has been out of his mind good and everyone from Krejci to Ryder has had a career year up front. Montreal, on the other hand, came back down to earth after being the chosen club last season. Cary Price has looked like a vulnerable kid more often than not this year and Andrei Markov actually led the team in scoring for a large portion of the season. And now he's injured.
Boston in 6.
WAS - NYR
If the Capitals had someone even slightly better than Jose Theodore in net, they would be juggernauts. Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Federov, Backstrom...they are effing scary.
And while the Rangers have Lundvist, I dont think it'll be enough. Mediocre back-end and not enough depth of fire power to take on the Capitals. I think this'll be a walk.
Washington in 5.
NJD - CAR
The Devils stumbled down the stretch while Carolina went on a tear, but it's hard not to like New Jersey in this one. I think they have superior forward depth and Parise is probably the best player in the series (although Staal isn't too far behind). Ward has finally arrived though, so if Brodeur continues to fade, Carolina could take this one. That's not something I'll bet on, though
New Jersey in 7.
PIT - PHI
This baby is going to be a war. Hard to choose between the two clubs too. I mean, the Penguins have Malkin, Crosby and Gonchar, but the Flyers have several capable forward lines (featuring Richards, Carter, Knuble, Briere, Gagne, Giroux...). Neither team has demonstrably superior goaltending over the other. Let's flip a coin.
Philly in 7.
Here's hoping I beat the damn TSN monkey.
WC
SJS - ANA
This should be an interesting series. San Jose was obviously the better team through most of the season, but the Ducks have really started to come on lately. The Sharks have the greater depth, but I might take Perry/Getzlaf/Ryan as the strongest single trio out of any of the forward groups. And Hiller might be the better goalie.
That said, it's hard to argue against the Presidents Trophy winners. They were the top team in the league for a reason.
Sharks in 7.
DET - CBJ
Looks like a mis-match, no doubt, but I think the Red Wings would have liked to avoid Columbus in the first round. Detroit is exploitable because of their goaltending and the BJ's Hickcockian coaching strategy might be able to take advantage.
Columbus in 7.
VCR - STL
Flames fans...take a look at the favorable first round match-up your team pissed away. Not to take anything away from the Blues - their run and subsequent placing in the WC is remarkable - but they are probably the weakest team in a play-off position. Partially because they're so young, partially because of their injury issues and partially because their run was predicated on goaltending and bounces. One loss against the Edmonton Oilers turned a first round series with home ice advantage versus the St. Louis Blues into an away series versus the Chicago Blackhawks.
Yes, the regular season matters.
Vancouver in 5
CHI - CGY
Im obviously going to be writing a bunch more on this series in the next few days. Let's just say, the Flames record against CHI and their performance the last few weeks has been...disquieting.
Chicago in 6.
EC
BOS - MTL
Boston is a quality team that has been smiled upon by the hockey gods all year. Tim Thomas has been out of his mind good and everyone from Krejci to Ryder has had a career year up front. Montreal, on the other hand, came back down to earth after being the chosen club last season. Cary Price has looked like a vulnerable kid more often than not this year and Andrei Markov actually led the team in scoring for a large portion of the season. And now he's injured.
Boston in 6.
WAS - NYR
If the Capitals had someone even slightly better than Jose Theodore in net, they would be juggernauts. Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Federov, Backstrom...they are effing scary.
And while the Rangers have Lundvist, I dont think it'll be enough. Mediocre back-end and not enough depth of fire power to take on the Capitals. I think this'll be a walk.
Washington in 5.
NJD - CAR
The Devils stumbled down the stretch while Carolina went on a tear, but it's hard not to like New Jersey in this one. I think they have superior forward depth and Parise is probably the best player in the series (although Staal isn't too far behind). Ward has finally arrived though, so if Brodeur continues to fade, Carolina could take this one. That's not something I'll bet on, though
New Jersey in 7.
PIT - PHI
This baby is going to be a war. Hard to choose between the two clubs too. I mean, the Penguins have Malkin, Crosby and Gonchar, but the Flyers have several capable forward lines (featuring Richards, Carter, Knuble, Briere, Gagne, Giroux...). Neither team has demonstrably superior goaltending over the other. Let's flip a coin.
Philly in 7.
Here's hoping I beat the damn TSN monkey.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Congratulations to the Columbus Blue Jackets
CBJ won their first ever play-off spot last night with a 4-3 S/O victory over CHI last night. It'll be the Franchises first ever look at the post-season, 7 long years after they joined the league. The BJs are a team I've been cheering for almost all season, spurred by their underdog status, their addition of Huselius (of whom Im a fan) and the sneaky smart moves of their drastically underrated GM, Scott Howson (a former Oiler asset. Letting him go was another Edmonton misstep I'd say).
If the Flames meet them in the first round, it'll be as close to a win-win scenario for me as fan as is probably possible. I'll be cheering for Calgary of course, but if they fall, I'll take some comfort that Columbus is moving on.
If the Flames meet them in the first round, it'll be as close to a win-win scenario for me as fan as is probably possible. I'll be cheering for Calgary of course, but if they fall, I'll take some comfort that Columbus is moving on.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Where's our bailout??
I've been too focused on other things to rightly look at the Flames ridiculous cap situation recently. You know, the one that has caused the club to send a viable NHLer in Dustin Boyd down to the farm and play with less than a full compliment of players during a fight for the NW division down the stretch drive.
Thankfully, Tom Benjamin takes Sutter to task for his questionable cap management. The best bit:
I thought Sutter was wrong to trade for Jokinen even before this fiasco unfolded. I think it was more wrong today because I think making sure the team has enough money to ice a full team is a fundamental for any GM.
I'll add that some of us saw this coming in October in the wake of the Warrener/Boyd affair. In fact, I disliked the Flames cap position even before the year started.
Myself, I dont think carrying a large amount of cap space is a good idea. If you can reasonably spend a lot of money to build a team, you should. That said, part of managing the cap is establishing and maintaining at least a minimal buffer that will allow you to make big trades or suffer through a rash of injuries (or both) if need be. Sutter failed in this aspect this season and it's hurting the team down the stretch.
The Flames budgetary circumstances would be defensible if Calgary was getting value out of their bloated-cap roster, but, sadly, that's not the case: there are at least 4 highly suspect contracts on this club that are either entirely needless (Warrener, Roy), or grossly inflated (Vandermeer, Primeau).
Darryl needs to get this house in order his off-season. Things will be even tighter next year seeing as the Flames have 14 players signed for nearly $46M. A lot of his problems go away (Warrener, Aucoin) but that won't stop him from making new ones if nothings been learned from this year.
Thankfully, Tom Benjamin takes Sutter to task for his questionable cap management. The best bit:
I thought Sutter was wrong to trade for Jokinen even before this fiasco unfolded. I think it was more wrong today because I think making sure the team has enough money to ice a full team is a fundamental for any GM.
I'll add that some of us saw this coming in October in the wake of the Warrener/Boyd affair. In fact, I disliked the Flames cap position even before the year started.
Myself, I dont think carrying a large amount of cap space is a good idea. If you can reasonably spend a lot of money to build a team, you should. That said, part of managing the cap is establishing and maintaining at least a minimal buffer that will allow you to make big trades or suffer through a rash of injuries (or both) if need be. Sutter failed in this aspect this season and it's hurting the team down the stretch.
The Flames budgetary circumstances would be defensible if Calgary was getting value out of their bloated-cap roster, but, sadly, that's not the case: there are at least 4 highly suspect contracts on this club that are either entirely needless (Warrener, Roy), or grossly inflated (Vandermeer, Primeau).
Darryl needs to get this house in order his off-season. Things will be even tighter next year seeing as the Flames have 14 players signed for nearly $46M. A lot of his problems go away (Warrener, Aucoin) but that won't stop him from making new ones if nothings been learned from this year.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
News and notes, April 7
- Well, while not ideal it certainly is dramatic. Flames versus Canucks tonight with the NW division on the line. The winner will be showered with praise! The loser will be taunted and booed till my throat is sore! Join the fun at my gamethread. There's also Flames Nation, of course.
- OR...you could swing by the Score where I'll be hosting another liveblog this evening. I expect the Canucks trolls to be thick as flies around a hogs head (unless Vancouver starts losing of course).
- I've been writing a weekly fantasy column for rototimes.com/fanball.com for more than year now, but last week's piece was the first time I really got into discussing and explaining advanced metrics. It'll be interesting to see if it's well-received by the more general readership there.
- OR...you could swing by the Score where I'll be hosting another liveblog this evening. I expect the Canucks trolls to be thick as flies around a hogs head (unless Vancouver starts losing of course).
- I've been writing a weekly fantasy column for rototimes.com/fanball.com for more than year now, but last week's piece was the first time I really got into discussing and explaining advanced metrics. It'll be interesting to see if it's well-received by the more general readership there.
Monday, April 06, 2009
A ray of light
A week or two ago, I was compelled to comment over at Sleek's place because the Good Earl was frustrated by his chosen team's money players: Getzlaf, Perry et al. Were being handily outscored by the opposition and the Ducks were in a seeming death spiral:
One specific area that could use some improvement? In the seven games since the trade deadline, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Cristensen have been surrendering even-strength goals at twice the rate that Todd Marchant, Petteri Nokelainen, and Mike Brown have been surrendering goals while shorthanded. The Ducks seemingly would find some easier success if they could stem some of the GA-bleeding from the top line.
Upon reading his (understandably justified) rant, I took a look at ANA's corsi and percentages over the given period of time and discovered the big boys were outshooting the bad guys, but had lousy SH% and SV%. From my comment at the time:
The SV% with Getzlaf on the ice the last 7 games has been .822! For Perry….833. And the SH% for the Ducks with those guys on the ice has been 7 and 8.3% respectively. Those are TERRIBLE rates and it makes me think your big guns have been getting the bad bounces recently.
The day after I made that comment, the Ducks hammered the Avs 7-2 and they've been hot ever since. What happened? The percentages swung back around. Big time:
Getzlaf: .926 SV%, 20.4 SH%
Perry: .933 SV%, 21.6 SH%
Ryan: .915 SV%, 16.3 SH%
Now, I'm not writing this to pat myself on the back or say "I told you so". I bring it up because it seems relevant to the current situation the Flames find themselves in. As you all know, the club has been fighting through it's own bout of offensive doldrums, led in terms of ineffectiveness by the Flames own money players, who have themselves been handily outscored the last few weeks or so. Here's the club's corsi rates and percentages since March 18:
Jarome Iginla: +24, .886 SV%, 5.6 SH%
Olli Jokinen: +17, .884 SV%, 4.3 SH%
Mike Cammalleri: +26, .894 SV%, 4.1 SH%
Now that's bad - probably unsustainably bad. Overall during the period in question, Calgary is +92 in terms corsi, but has a putrid ES PDO (90.3+5.7=96). Kipper isn't making many saves and the opposition has enjoyed a .943% ES SV% in aggregate versus the Flames since the 18th of last month. Add in the sputtering power play and it's stunning that the Flames have won any games at all.
Basically, Calgary has had some shit luck recently. The injuries (and addition of Bertuzzi back into the top 6 ) haven't helped, but one has to assume that the correction is coming sooner or later and pucks are going to start finding the back of the net again. "Sooner" would obviously be preferable, especially with half of the defense corps on the sidelines.
One specific area that could use some improvement? In the seven games since the trade deadline, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Eric Cristensen have been surrendering even-strength goals at twice the rate that Todd Marchant, Petteri Nokelainen, and Mike Brown have been surrendering goals while shorthanded. The Ducks seemingly would find some easier success if they could stem some of the GA-bleeding from the top line.
Upon reading his (understandably justified) rant, I took a look at ANA's corsi and percentages over the given period of time and discovered the big boys were outshooting the bad guys, but had lousy SH% and SV%. From my comment at the time:
The SV% with Getzlaf on the ice the last 7 games has been .822! For Perry….833. And the SH% for the Ducks with those guys on the ice has been 7 and 8.3% respectively. Those are TERRIBLE rates and it makes me think your big guns have been getting the bad bounces recently.
The day after I made that comment, the Ducks hammered the Avs 7-2 and they've been hot ever since. What happened? The percentages swung back around. Big time:
Getzlaf: .926 SV%, 20.4 SH%
Perry: .933 SV%, 21.6 SH%
Ryan: .915 SV%, 16.3 SH%
Now, I'm not writing this to pat myself on the back or say "I told you so". I bring it up because it seems relevant to the current situation the Flames find themselves in. As you all know, the club has been fighting through it's own bout of offensive doldrums, led in terms of ineffectiveness by the Flames own money players, who have themselves been handily outscored the last few weeks or so. Here's the club's corsi rates and percentages since March 18:
Jarome Iginla: +24, .886 SV%, 5.6 SH%
Olli Jokinen: +17, .884 SV%, 4.3 SH%
Mike Cammalleri: +26, .894 SV%, 4.1 SH%
Now that's bad - probably unsustainably bad. Overall during the period in question, Calgary is +92 in terms corsi, but has a putrid ES PDO (90.3+5.7=96). Kipper isn't making many saves and the opposition has enjoyed a .943% ES SV% in aggregate versus the Flames since the 18th of last month. Add in the sputtering power play and it's stunning that the Flames have won any games at all.
Basically, Calgary has had some shit luck recently. The injuries (and addition of Bertuzzi back into the top 6 ) haven't helped, but one has to assume that the correction is coming sooner or later and pucks are going to start finding the back of the net again. "Sooner" would obviously be preferable, especially with half of the defense corps on the sidelines.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Leland Irving: comparables
Projecting goalies is extremely difficult. Their development road is far more difficult than skaters and their performance stats are team dependent. And, unlike skaters, it's a lot harder to put their output in context of team effects - for example, a PPG skater on an offensively challenged team tells you something. Or a guy with a -2 rating on a club that's -30 at ES also tells you something. But, it's hard to say to what a degree a goalie's lackluster stats are his or his teams in isolation. Especially when it comes to lower leagues like the AHL and Junior where stuff like ES SV%, PK SV%, SQN% (shot quality neutral SV%) and quality of shots against aren't available.
Leland Iriving was the Flames first round pick in 2006. He had a decent Junior career, although he played in very friendly circumstances: his WHL squad (Everett Silvertips) was one of the best teams in the league in terms of deterring goals against.
Over at Jonathan's place, Irving was brought up and JW mentioned his stats so far this year look fairly decent. It occurred to me that I had no context in which to place Irving's rookie efforts, so I decided to look up some comparable from the big leagues to see where he placed.
Problem being, not a lot of NHL guys played in the AHL as a 20 year old. Some were in other leagues across the pond, some were still in college and some had already made the dance. Let's work with what we ahve and see where he lands anyways...
First, though, let's compare Irving to his teammates. That is, the other guys who have played goal for the QC Flames this year:
Leland Irving: 44GP, 2.26 GAA, 0.912 SV%
Matt Keetley: 32GP, 2.84 GAA, 0.893 SV%
Kevin Lalande: 6GP, 1.92 GAA, 0.929 SV%
Irving took over the #1 job from Keetley a couple months into the season and has been the farm club's starter since. Lalande's results are excellent, but sullied by a small sample size (although, he's putting up similar numbers for the Syracuse Crunch since he was dealt). Both Lalande and Keetley are older than Irving as well (by one and two years respectively). Curtis MceLhinney's rookie AHL SV% was also .912, although he was older at the time (having come via the college route).
Now, here's Irving's 20 year old AHL season as compared to some existing NHL 'tenders.
Some guys played more games than others in the above comparison. Ward, for example, played 50 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters in 04/05. Halak, in contrast, played just 13 games in 05/06 for Hamilton.
The obvious caveats aside, this comparison seems to speak somewhat favorably of Irving. He's not in the realm of Ward or Lehtonen, but he's ahead of guys like Budaj and Raycroft. That said, his results thus far don't suggest an elite ceiling to me. his .912 SV% is slightly above the mean (.910) of the guys mentioned.
Finally, here's Iriving results relative to his draft cohort (only those with AHL results included):
This look isn't as encouraging. The three guys drafted in the first round with Irving are having better years in terms of SV% (Helenius, Varlamov and Bernier). Four other guys picked later than Irving (Mason, Dekanich, Atkoff and Enroth) are also ahead of Leland by this metric. His SV% is also slightly below the mean found here (.914). Of course, this comparison excludes guys who are still in lower leagues (NCAA, Junior, etc.) so at least it can be assumed that Irving is ahead of those guys.
Obviously, there's lots and lots of development time left for Irving so there's still tons of data to be yielded. However, looking at this first round draft pick right now elicits a big "meh" from me. Nothing suggests to me - again, as of right now - that Irving is necessarily Kiprusoff's heir apparent as the Flames future starter. His results so far look "good", but hardly elite. I'll leave it up to you to decide if that was worth a first rounder or not.
Leland Iriving was the Flames first round pick in 2006. He had a decent Junior career, although he played in very friendly circumstances: his WHL squad (Everett Silvertips) was one of the best teams in the league in terms of deterring goals against.
Over at Jonathan's place, Irving was brought up and JW mentioned his stats so far this year look fairly decent. It occurred to me that I had no context in which to place Irving's rookie efforts, so I decided to look up some comparable from the big leagues to see where he placed.
Problem being, not a lot of NHL guys played in the AHL as a 20 year old. Some were in other leagues across the pond, some were still in college and some had already made the dance. Let's work with what we ahve and see where he lands anyways...
First, though, let's compare Irving to his teammates. That is, the other guys who have played goal for the QC Flames this year:
Leland Irving: 44GP, 2.26 GAA, 0.912 SV%
Matt Keetley: 32GP, 2.84 GAA, 0.893 SV%
Kevin Lalande: 6GP, 1.92 GAA, 0.929 SV%
Irving took over the #1 job from Keetley a couple months into the season and has been the farm club's starter since. Lalande's results are excellent, but sullied by a small sample size (although, he's putting up similar numbers for the Syracuse Crunch since he was dealt). Both Lalande and Keetley are older than Irving as well (by one and two years respectively). Curtis MceLhinney's rookie AHL SV% was also .912, although he was older at the time (having come via the college route).
Now, here's Irving's 20 year old AHL season as compared to some existing NHL 'tenders.
Some guys played more games than others in the above comparison. Ward, for example, played 50 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters in 04/05. Halak, in contrast, played just 13 games in 05/06 for Hamilton.
The obvious caveats aside, this comparison seems to speak somewhat favorably of Irving. He's not in the realm of Ward or Lehtonen, but he's ahead of guys like Budaj and Raycroft. That said, his results thus far don't suggest an elite ceiling to me. his .912 SV% is slightly above the mean (.910) of the guys mentioned.
Finally, here's Iriving results relative to his draft cohort (only those with AHL results included):
This look isn't as encouraging. The three guys drafted in the first round with Irving are having better years in terms of SV% (Helenius, Varlamov and Bernier). Four other guys picked later than Irving (Mason, Dekanich, Atkoff and Enroth) are also ahead of Leland by this metric. His SV% is also slightly below the mean found here (.914). Of course, this comparison excludes guys who are still in lower leagues (NCAA, Junior, etc.) so at least it can be assumed that Irving is ahead of those guys.
Obviously, there's lots and lots of development time left for Irving so there's still tons of data to be yielded. However, looking at this first round draft pick right now elicits a big "meh" from me. Nothing suggests to me - again, as of right now - that Irving is necessarily Kiprusoff's heir apparent as the Flames future starter. His results so far look "good", but hardly elite. I'll leave it up to you to decide if that was worth a first rounder or not.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
The Inside Scoop as a marketing slogan
I was listening to the Fan960 today (local sports radio) and heard an ad for the stations "Flames Zone" featuring blogs by Rob Kerr and Mike Rogers. The pitch was something to the effect of "they spend almost every day with the players and can give you the inside information the other guys just can't." (paraphrased)
I, being both one of the disparaged "other guys" and a potential consumer of such valuable "inside info" (tm), decided to check out the Flames Zone.
First, Kerr's blog -
Every entry is a gameday post of some sort. Here's an excerpt from the latest one:
Flames now find themselves in a tough spot with Vancouver winning last night the schedule really does line up against the local hockey heroes, for no other reason then the Canucks have 2 games left against Colorado. The Avalanche are beaten up and demoralized and are losing by at least 3 goals in games recently. The Flames need to focus on trying to win out if they want top in the Northwest.
...
If you didn’t see live, I didn’t either, Andre Roy was up to his usual high jinks after the game on Saturday. During Hockey Night in Canada’s post game show, they were interviewing Ollie Jokinen when in the back ground a pair of legs appeared out of the Flames door.
They're all pretty much like that. Sometimes he posts something he sees in practice (like the potential line combos).
Err...okay. Maybe Rogers has the valuable inside dope for us?
The Flames outplayed, outhit, and outshot the Sharks tonight but fell 2-1 to the visitors. It’s easy to say the Flames should have won the game, but the bottom line is they didn’t. The game of hockey is about results and the Flames were the losers in this one. The talk will be about how well they played, and rightly so, but they did not produce enough offence to win and even though they outchanced San Jose, they fell short. Offensively, they got the shots, but were unable to get rebound chances because of the strong play of the Sharks in front of Evgeni Nabokov, and also because the Flames did not battle hard enough for loose pucks.
The Flames lost because they didn't win. They didn't win because the game of hockey is about results...and the result was, the Flames lost. Because they didn't score more goals than SJS. etc. Also - battling hard is good.
Hmmm...not much here either Im afraid. Especially not in terms of interesting or informative data yielded via "day-to-day access to the players".
I won't go much further, because I don't actually want to beat these guys up too much. They're radio personalities, after all, and while I don't always agree with either Kerr or Rogers, they are clearly dedicated, hard-working and pretty capable at what they do (qua radio guys at least). Kerr in particular strikes me as a driven and passionate guy who is also pretty knowledgeable.
It annoys me as a consumer, however, when I'm promised inside access and instead given bland generalities. It especially annoys me as a blogger when I'm derided as not delivering value relative to these "connected" media guys when this is the pablum that they serve up. Sure, maybe Kerr and Rogers aren't writers and maybe they save the best content for when they're on air - fair enough. But maybe they shouldn't be, you know, blogging.
I, being both one of the disparaged "other guys" and a potential consumer of such valuable "inside info" (tm), decided to check out the Flames Zone.
First, Kerr's blog -
Every entry is a gameday post of some sort. Here's an excerpt from the latest one:
Flames now find themselves in a tough spot with Vancouver winning last night the schedule really does line up against the local hockey heroes, for no other reason then the Canucks have 2 games left against Colorado. The Avalanche are beaten up and demoralized and are losing by at least 3 goals in games recently. The Flames need to focus on trying to win out if they want top in the Northwest.
...
If you didn’t see live, I didn’t either, Andre Roy was up to his usual high jinks after the game on Saturday. During Hockey Night in Canada’s post game show, they were interviewing Ollie Jokinen when in the back ground a pair of legs appeared out of the Flames door.
They're all pretty much like that. Sometimes he posts something he sees in practice (like the potential line combos).
Err...okay. Maybe Rogers has the valuable inside dope for us?
The Flames outplayed, outhit, and outshot the Sharks tonight but fell 2-1 to the visitors. It’s easy to say the Flames should have won the game, but the bottom line is they didn’t. The game of hockey is about results and the Flames were the losers in this one. The talk will be about how well they played, and rightly so, but they did not produce enough offence to win and even though they outchanced San Jose, they fell short. Offensively, they got the shots, but were unable to get rebound chances because of the strong play of the Sharks in front of Evgeni Nabokov, and also because the Flames did not battle hard enough for loose pucks.
The Flames lost because they didn't win. They didn't win because the game of hockey is about results...and the result was, the Flames lost. Because they didn't score more goals than SJS. etc. Also - battling hard is good.
Hmmm...not much here either Im afraid. Especially not in terms of interesting or informative data yielded via "day-to-day access to the players".
I won't go much further, because I don't actually want to beat these guys up too much. They're radio personalities, after all, and while I don't always agree with either Kerr or Rogers, they are clearly dedicated, hard-working and pretty capable at what they do (qua radio guys at least). Kerr in particular strikes me as a driven and passionate guy who is also pretty knowledgeable.
It annoys me as a consumer, however, when I'm promised inside access and instead given bland generalities. It especially annoys me as a blogger when I'm derided as not delivering value relative to these "connected" media guys when this is the pablum that they serve up. Sure, maybe Kerr and Rogers aren't writers and maybe they save the best content for when they're on air - fair enough. But maybe they shouldn't be, you know, blogging.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Propaganda
On Saturday night the Calgary Flames defeated the Minnesota Wild, allowing them to remain in the lead for the Northwest division over the surging Vancouver Canucks.
No thanks to the boldly incompetent Eric Furlatt, however, whose baffling call washed out a perfectly legitimate Olli Jokinen power play goal. The official justification was "player in the crease", even though that sort of standard hasn't been enforced in the league since the controversial Hull-toe-in-the-paint Stanley Cup game winner way back when.
If you thought that would be the height of the outrage, think again. Eric Francis has an article in this morning's Sun detailing Stephen Walkom's (Furlatt's boss) reaction to the call:
"It was a tough call and a ballsy call, but it was the right call -- a great call," an emphatic Walkom told the Sun. "Our guys are the first to step up if they do make a mistake. I think Mick McGeough showed that years ago. But if they haven't made an error, they shouldn't be chastised for it."
A couple of things here:
1.) It wasn't a tough call in the least. Anyone with a single functioning eye and working knowledge of the game saw that it was the wrong call, immediately.
2.) It's interesting that Walkom brings up McGeough here, since he was another Jackass who went around making obviously terrible calls on potentially pivotal plays. Of course, the league never disciplined him either, instead allowing him to walk gracefully into the sunset of retirement.
3.) Either Furlatt made an error or the league has been enforcing a totally different standard for all the other games played this year (and every year for the better part of the last decade). Which is it?
"If you take a look at overhead, he's actually standing in the blue. That's what Eric sees," said Walkom, who reviewed the goal in slow motion that night.
"Even though at the time of the goal he's not bumping him, if the goalie can't do his job, it's no goal. There was incidental contact and the goalie was distracted and unable to get set for the shot. You can't visually interfere (!) while the goalie is doing his job in the blue paint."
Really Stephen? Let's take a look at the overhead as you suggest:
And, a closer look at the "controversial" incident:
Firstly, we can safely call "Bullshit" on Walkom's first two assertions that there was "incidental contact" and the goalie was "unable to get set for the shot". Take another look: Glencross isn't "standing in the blue" and he never even brushes Backstrom. Secondly, what the FUCK is Walkom blathering about? "Can't visually interfere..."? You mean, screen? Screening the goalie? That's illegal in hockey Stephen? That's news to me. Hear that, Holmstrom? Time to retire I guess. I wonder how many "illegal" goals have been scored this season according to this suddenly applicable criteria?
Walkom cited rule 69.3 which states: "If an attacking player establishes a significant position within the goal crease, so as to obstruct the goalkeeper's vision and impair his ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed."
You mean, kinda like this? -
This was Detroit's tying goal in the final seconds of the game a few weeks back. Notice the foot in the crease, impeding Kipper's movement. It obviously stood up, without protestation.
Now, I'm not crying conspiracy and I don't want to beat a dead horse. I would have gladly let this incident pass had Walkom not come out to praise what was obviously a total fuck-up by Furlatt. Defending the indefensible is one thing - but trumpeting it as exemplary is, well...despicable. Either Walkolm is totally incompetent himself, or he thinks the players and fans around the league are as credulous as 5 year olds. I'm not sure which is worse.
What's perhaps more distressing is the suggestion of a culture within the NHL's officiating where mistakes and ineptitude are not only ignored but reinforced as proper. As if this league doesn't have enough problems already.
*Thanks to those posters here for the valuable animated GIFs.
No thanks to the boldly incompetent Eric Furlatt, however, whose baffling call washed out a perfectly legitimate Olli Jokinen power play goal. The official justification was "player in the crease", even though that sort of standard hasn't been enforced in the league since the controversial Hull-toe-in-the-paint Stanley Cup game winner way back when.
If you thought that would be the height of the outrage, think again. Eric Francis has an article in this morning's Sun detailing Stephen Walkom's (Furlatt's boss) reaction to the call:
"It was a tough call and a ballsy call, but it was the right call -- a great call," an emphatic Walkom told the Sun. "Our guys are the first to step up if they do make a mistake. I think Mick McGeough showed that years ago. But if they haven't made an error, they shouldn't be chastised for it."
A couple of things here:
1.) It wasn't a tough call in the least. Anyone with a single functioning eye and working knowledge of the game saw that it was the wrong call, immediately.
2.) It's interesting that Walkom brings up McGeough here, since he was another Jackass who went around making obviously terrible calls on potentially pivotal plays. Of course, the league never disciplined him either, instead allowing him to walk gracefully into the sunset of retirement.
3.) Either Furlatt made an error or the league has been enforcing a totally different standard for all the other games played this year (and every year for the better part of the last decade). Which is it?
"If you take a look at overhead, he's actually standing in the blue. That's what Eric sees," said Walkom, who reviewed the goal in slow motion that night.
"Even though at the time of the goal he's not bumping him, if the goalie can't do his job, it's no goal. There was incidental contact and the goalie was distracted and unable to get set for the shot. You can't visually interfere (!) while the goalie is doing his job in the blue paint."
Really Stephen? Let's take a look at the overhead as you suggest:
And, a closer look at the "controversial" incident:
Firstly, we can safely call "Bullshit" on Walkom's first two assertions that there was "incidental contact" and the goalie was "unable to get set for the shot". Take another look: Glencross isn't "standing in the blue" and he never even brushes Backstrom. Secondly, what the FUCK is Walkom blathering about? "Can't visually interfere..."? You mean, screen? Screening the goalie? That's illegal in hockey Stephen? That's news to me. Hear that, Holmstrom? Time to retire I guess. I wonder how many "illegal" goals have been scored this season according to this suddenly applicable criteria?
Walkom cited rule 69.3 which states: "If an attacking player establishes a significant position within the goal crease, so as to obstruct the goalkeeper's vision and impair his ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed."
You mean, kinda like this? -
This was Detroit's tying goal in the final seconds of the game a few weeks back. Notice the foot in the crease, impeding Kipper's movement. It obviously stood up, without protestation.
Now, I'm not crying conspiracy and I don't want to beat a dead horse. I would have gladly let this incident pass had Walkom not come out to praise what was obviously a total fuck-up by Furlatt. Defending the indefensible is one thing - but trumpeting it as exemplary is, well...despicable. Either Walkolm is totally incompetent himself, or he thinks the players and fans around the league are as credulous as 5 year olds. I'm not sure which is worse.
What's perhaps more distressing is the suggestion of a culture within the NHL's officiating where mistakes and ineptitude are not only ignored but reinforced as proper. As if this league doesn't have enough problems already.
*Thanks to those posters here for the valuable animated GIFs.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Items of interest
- I have a gamethread up at SBN. I also penned a short article on Jamie Lundmark today.
- Calgary in Pittsburgh tonight. The Pens are one of those teams you can crush or that can crush you depending on how Crosby/Malkin play (and how the team handles them). They've been fairly decent recently (Calgary hasn't) so it'll be interesting to see how things go.
- Remember when the much hyped match-up between these two squads was Crosby versus Phaneuf? That seems a long time ago suddenly because it seems like gross mismatch currently.
- I'll be liveblogging the action for the Score tonight. Please drop by if you're free.
- Calgary in Pittsburgh tonight. The Pens are one of those teams you can crush or that can crush you depending on how Crosby/Malkin play (and how the team handles them). They've been fairly decent recently (Calgary hasn't) so it'll be interesting to see how things go.
- Remember when the much hyped match-up between these two squads was Crosby versus Phaneuf? That seems a long time ago suddenly because it seems like gross mismatch currently.
- I'll be liveblogging the action for the Score tonight. Please drop by if you're free.
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