New Numbers - Seminal work

Due to some excellent work by the more math-inclined bloggers out there, new metrics such as CORSI and on-ice SV/SH% have become very important in the way I think about and analyze the game. Unfortunately, the information about these various new measures and the assumptions behind them hasn't been collated in a single place yet (as far as I know), so, unless you've been able to follow the various discussions across a number of different blogs over the last 12 months, you might not have the whole picture.

As such, I've decided to track down the most influential posts as a reference for those with questions, complaints, comments, etc.

- Zone time, Corsi and Correlation to Winning by Vic Ferrari.

- Winning and Losing you games by Vic Ferrari (individual players contributions to corsi and SV%).

- On-ice Save Percentages By Mudcrutch.

- PDO Numbers By Mudcrutch.

- Outshooting By Mudcrutch.

- Even Strength Shooting Percentage By JLikens.

There's lots of reading there and some fairly in depth math, but I think this body of work provides the basis for my assumptions about variation, randomness, percentages and the value of possession and outshooting in the NHL.

If I've missed any other seminal posts or articles, please let me know and I'll add it to the list.

Gameday Notes and such

- Flames can distance themselves from the charging Canucks tonight, but they'll have to do it against what will no doubt be a very pissed off Red Wings team tonight. Holmstrom is out but Hossa is back. With Calgary's goaltending and PK faltering, this is obviously not an ideal opponent.

- I have a piece up about the Vandermeer vs. Pardy thing over at Flamesnation. Here's my SBN gamethread as well.

- If you aren't reading Copper & Blue and Gospel of Hockey...you should be.

- It looks more and more like the Flames will be facing the BJ's in the first round. That sucks. Since calling up Steve Mason on Nov. 5, they've gone 34-22-4. That's about a 46 win season over a full year. Since adding Antoine Vermette at the trade deadline they've lost just twice. This is not a team I want to face right off the bat.

Ranked even strength production by forwards

I put together this list of NHL forwards, ranked by this season's ESP/60 rate. I removed anyone who hadn't played at least 30 games and added eah players associated corsi rate/60, just for a bit of context. I thought it was kind of interesting, so I figured I'd share it. Keep in mind, this is just for the current season.



The full list can also be found here. All numbers via Behindthenet.ca.

PS - I "marked" a few of the notable Flames players in red.

Numbers rant

I've been dubbed a "stathead" around the ol' sphere a lot recently. Some use the term descriptively, others as a pejorative. I would like to say for the record, however, that I don't find all stats particularly powerful or meaningful. In fact, I downright hate some of them.

Stats I dislike:

Goalie wins.

My new pet peeve. I've said this before and I'm sure I'll have to say it again: goalies don't win games. Teams win games. True, netminders perform a vital function and a good goalie can improve a club's chances of winning, but, in the end, someone has to score goals in order for a team to win the game. And goalies don't score. They don't draw penalties. They don't do a lot of the things that lead to goals for or against.

It's a good rule of thumb that a goaltender with a lot of wins is probably pretty good. All other things being equal, that's true. Problem is, things aren't always equal. Sometimes a great goalie plays for a lousy team. Sometimes a lousy goalie plays behind a great team. In those cases, wins are an extremely poor barometer of the goalie's efficacy. In fact, in both cases the win stat is probably grossly misrepresenting the guy in question.

In the end, SV% is far more relevant stat when assessing goaltenders, because the rate at which a goalie stops the puck is the only contribution he makes to a team's wins/losses. Anyone claiming that "wins" is a more important stat than "SV%" is inverting cause and effect.

Plus/Minus

I actually don't dislike plus/minus as much as most people these days, but I can still admit that it's a flawed stat - mainly because it's sullied by such things as short handed and empty net goals. Parsing situations and counting events makes plus/minus more powerful, as does considering it in context of a team effects (such as quality of competition, quality of opposition and ES SV%). Naked plus/minus absent of these qualifiers can be fairly misleading, however.

"RTSS" stats.

Take-aways, give-aways and hits are three of the most useless categories in the league, because no one seems to agree on what any of these things is. Different arenas count each thing differently and I have yet to see any rational criteria used to judge each of them. The numbers are almost totally useless therefore.

All that said, there are some stats I'd like to see:

Puck battle differential.

I'd really like to see +/- rate for winning/losing puck battles. I think it's a skill that is almost essential in the NHL and it would be interesting to see how a puck battle rates would correlate with wins/GD etc. In addition, it strikes me as something that is potentially trackable, as long as the defintion of "puck battle" and what constitutes a "win" or "loss" is properly defined and observed.

PP/PK temporal efficiency.

Right now, PP and PK rates are based on "opportunities" and "times shorthanded". Clearly, however, not all instances of special teams are created equal: some last 5 minutes. Other last 10 seconds. For example, if Detroit scores a goal during a 5 minute major, they are "1 for 1". If, on the other hand, the Flames have a 10 second PP due to over-lapping minors and they fail to convert, they're "0 for 1". That's fairly ridiculous. A PP scoring rate (or PK success rate) in terms of goals/time unit would probably be a lot more revealing and powerful, especially if it was parsed by situation (one man advantage, two man advantage).

This and that

- To continue in the same vein as "Fallacies abound" below, Jasper over at the excellent Capitals blog Jaspers Rink is a little exasperated with Alexander Ovechkin recently:

Since authoring "The Sequel" on February 18, Alex Ovechkin has racked up six goals and seven assists in a dozen game, a 102-point pace over the course of a full season. He had a ten-game point-scoring streak snapped last night, and has been held off the scoresheet just two times in his past 22 outings.

Not bad.

But do you want to know what is bad? Over that 12-game span mentioned above, AO has a minus-8 rating (including back-to-back minus-2's in his last two games), and hasn't had a plus rating in a single game.

...

Alex Ovechkin, it seems, is bored. Bored enough to take shifts off.

...

In some ways, it's too bad AO isn't a little more motivated by individual accomplishments and accolades (he certainly doesn't have a second consecutive Hart Trophy locked up quite yet), because the team could use a more focused version of the Great Eight right now. And perhaps it's been a necessary break of sorts for him. But it's just about time for him to put the team back on his broad shoulders. It's time for the leader to lead.

Not focused? Bad leader? Bored? These all rang alarm bells in my head, so I looked at AO's ES numbers over the span in question:

+68 corsi, 9.4 SH%, .894 on-ice SV%, 6.8 on-ice SH% (!!), 96.2 PDO.

Ovechkin hasn't been bored recently. He's been unlucky. Theodore has been fairly awful in WAS the past little while (especially behind Ovie for whatever reason) and that on-ice SH% is way, way too low considering who Ovechkin is and who he plays with.

I don't blame Jasper for being annoyed and casting about for explanations - look at WAS ES SH% since Feb 18: 5%! I can't imagine how frustrating the last month or so must have been for Caps fans. But there's no way a club with that kind of personnel up front continues to shoot at 5% 5on5. I suspect Ovechkin's focus and leadership will improve once the percentages go up.

- I have a piece up over at Flames Nation on Calgary's potential first round opponent(s). My conclusion? Edmonton would be ideal...because they stink.

- Fun fact: Kevin Lalande went 3-0-0 of the CBJ farm team was named player of the week in the AHL. I have a link to the story over at SBN. Clearly he's trying to prove my assertion that a 4th round pick for a minor league goalie was an overpayment.

EDITED to add this link from the new Puck Prospectus (H/T Jonathan Willis). The piece is on a pervasive NHL-wide cowbell: size. Or, more accurately, the mistaken belief that BIG = GOOD -

This is clear evidence that size by itself is often considered an important factor by NHL teams when drafting players. It is far too common a problem to be explained by claiming that scouts saw something in each of these failed draft picks, and that they just didn't pan out. It is systematic and pervasive. Brian Gionta was also drafted in 1998, at #82 overall despite excellent scoring totals. His major problem was his height (5'7”). NHL teams show a definite preference for large players who don't play well over small player who do play well.

Iain Fyffe uses the 1998 Entry draft as a case study to prove his point, although wonders if this misconception is starting to fall away in the "modern" NHL thanks to the renewed emphasis on speed and skill in the wake of the obstruction crack down.

Blogging versus classic journalism revisited

Kevin Carson has a lengthy blog post here proclaiming the practice of blogging (or online journalism) as a superior emerging form relative to traditional reporting. Some excerpts:

The revolutionary significance of Internet journalism lies not in how it generates content, but in the use it makes of existing content. Bloggers make better use of the dead tree media's own content than the dead tree media itself does.

...nobody disputes that print journalism has an enormous army of reporters on the ground, far beyond the resources online journalism has at its direct disposal. But as Lincoln once said to General McClellan, “If you're not going to use that army, may I borrow it?”

...

Bloggers may well be unoriginal, in the sense that they only link to what's already out there rather than reporting new information. But they use what's out there in ways that most traditional newspapers refrain from doing. That is, they put it together. They quote a factual claim from one source, and then immediately provide a hyperlink to information that provides a factual context to the claim. They take bits and pieces of news from different sources, aggregate it, and draw conclusions as to its meaning.

This advantage of networked, online journalism—making better use of traditional journalism's content than traditional journalism itself does—is only one particular illustration of the more general advantage of networked, open-source culture. Open-source culture is about eliminating proprietary boundaries on content, and leaving anyone and everyone free to build on and improve it without regard to organizational boundaries. The main difference between Windows and Linux lies not in what the primary code-writers do, but in what user and developer communities can do with other people's code.

...

Mainstream journalism is heavily influenced by Walter Lippman's model of "professional objectivity," which in practice means the journalist pretends to be stupider than he really is. The journalist, in order to project an air of "neutrality," deliberately refrains both from drawing obvious conclusions from factual evidence, and from going beyond quotes from the spokemen for "both sides" to report factual evidence as to who's telling the truth. Fake "objectivity" means not drawing obvious conclusions from the facts, and pretending not to notice facts that reflect on the truth what one side or the other claims. Appealing independently to an objective factual realm, to present information that doesn't come from "either side," would itself be (according to the current institutional mindset) "taking sides." But to the extent that the "two sides" can't both be right at the same time, truth itself is "biased." There is no way to maintain a pose of neutrality except by avoiding independent recourse to the factual realm.

...

Rather than simply reporting "he said, she said," journalists should provide the information necessary to evaluate the truthfulness of the competing claims. And although most mainstream journalists don't do this, it's a major part of what blogs are all about. Bloggers do exactly what mainstream journalists should be doing, but aren't.

Carson's focus is political in the piece, but most of what he says applies to sports blogging as well. The excerpts above nicely summarize many of the reasons I began - and continue - to blog myself as well as consume a lot of blogger generated content on a daily basis. Im sure this isn't a terribly engaging issue for most, but if you have any interest at all in the ongoing argument between new and old media, make sure to check it out.

Fallacies abound

A couple of days ago, some local radio guys were talking about the recent struggles of the Boston Bruins. Various plausible sounding theories were suggested, among them "they have nothing to play for now" and "maybe they're buckling under the pressure". Yes, both of these things were proffered within minutes of each other, without recognition that they are obviously contradictory.

The funny thing is, I - as well as some others - have been waiting for the inevitable Bruin downswing for awhile. What Boston was doing earlier this year was pretty much unsustainable by the numbers. They were, as I like to say, riding the percentages and were bound to come back down to earth eventually. What we're doubtlessly seeing now is the inevitable correction.

I point this out because it struck me, listening to the FAN960 twist themselves into pretzels in an effort to diagnose the Bruins "ills", how fallacious "psychological" explanations of team success at the NHL level likely are. I began railing against this type of stuff awhile ago when people started using the "lack of leadership" meme as a kind of post hoc explanation of the team's relatively disappointing results. This can also happens with individual player assessments, where a lack of expected performance is explained away as some kind of innate mental flaw of the guy in question. Sometimes the guy just isn't that good and is a victim of unrealistic expectations. And sometimes he's a victim of the fundamental attribution error -

In attribution theory, the fundamental attribution error (also known as correspondence bias or overattribution effect) reflects our erroneous cognitive tendency to predominantly over-value dispositional, or personality-based, explanations (i.e., attributions or interpretations) for the observed behaviors of others, thus under-valuing or unacknowledging the potentiality of situational attributions or situational explanations for the behavioral motives of others. In other words, people predominantly presume that the actions of others are indicative of the "kind" of person they are, rather than the kind of situations that compels their behaviour.

People are human, so Im not totally discounting the possibility of idiosyncratic or psychological processes having some effect on a guys (or teams) performance. What we have to keep in mind when evaluating players in the NHL, however, is that these athletes are the best of the best in the world - and it takes more than just physical prowess to make the show. 99.9% of the players who have problems "playing through it" or "buckling under pressure" or "have a bad attitude towards hard work" have been weeded out at this point. Which means usually what we're doing when we apply these ready-made bromides to players/teams in the NHL is casting about for easy answers when the entity in question isn't meeting our (often) subjective expectations.

Link Policy

I've had a lot of emails recently asking me if I'd like to do a link exchange.

Folks, I don't do link exchanges. Not because I'm an arrogant dick or I think your blog/site sucks etc but because if I did exchange links with everyone who asked, I'd have a bloglist longer than an elephant phallus, rendering it cluttered and useless. I use my sidebar to read blogs that I know and like - if yours becomes one of those, a link will go up. If not, not. I would expect nothing less when it comes to linking to this space.

I don't get it

As the Flames tromp their sorry asses through the bucolic splendor of New Jersey this evening, I can't help but wonder why Brent Sutter will be watching the team from the opposition bench. Especially in light of this piece that appeared in the Calgary Herald today:

Brent Sutter sounds every bit the frustrated Alberta rancher lost in an urban jungle.

Homesick? You bet.

Thinking of walking away from his job as head coach of the New Jersey Devils to move back to his farm and family?

Also true.

"The hockey side, that part's been fun," the New Jersey Devils head coach says from his office on the west side of the Hudson River, across from the madness that is Manhattan.

"It's the other things. "It's hard to explain to anybody. My situation is somewhat different than a lot of other coaches in the NHL. I own a major junior team.

I own a ranch. I'm 2,800 miles from all that.

I have a family, and I'm 2,800 miles away from them."

Which begs the question - why, when the Darryl Sutter helmed Calgary Flames were looking for a coach, wasn't Brent Sutter here?

Let's provide some background. Brent Sutter is the owner, GM and former coach and President of the WHL's Red Deer Rebels. He's also the winning-est coach in the history of Canada's world Junior team (having never lost). He spent 7 years in the guts of the Western Hockey League, developing the kind of ass kickin', dirt chewin', farm boys that Darryl values so much. In fact, the two doubtlessly collaborated in choosing and then developing Dion Phaneuf into what he is today.

Brent was hired by the New Jersey Devils in the summer of '07. He coached them to a 46 win season in his first year and has guided the club to the top of the EC standings, despite lacking Martin Broduer for most of this season.

With all this in mind, some things strike me as unavoidably true:

1.) Brent Sutter is an excellent coach.
2.) Brent and Darryl Sutter share similar perspectives on hockey.
3.) Brent was available when the Flames were searching for a head coach (likely both before and after the failed Playfair experiment).

We also know that Darryl has no problems with surrounding himself with favorites and family. Duane Sutter was hired this past off-season as the Flames "Director of Player Personnel". So there's no cries of "Nepotism" to be avoided here. That ship has sailed.

I have no idea whether Brent could have done more or less with the Flames collection of players relative to Keenan the last two seasons. It's impossible to know, although given his success at every level, it's doubtful Sutter would have done worse. Either way, Im not openly condemning Keenan here or pining for an alternate universe where Brent was hired instead of Iron Mike. It's just that the fit is such a natural one, it makes me wonder why it never happened in the first place. Especially with Brent now openly considering resigning from the Devils and so he can return home.

Another Flames gameday - Canes Country

- Another day, another gameday thread at SBN. Thanks to those of you who stopped by and commented last night. To anyone who hasn't, you should give it a try - SBN's functionality makes commenting and following a gamethread really smooth and easy. I know, I know - signing up for an 'account' is a pain in the ass. It doesn't take very long though and once you're done, you're done. Then you can go visit Mirtle at From the Rink and tell him how wrong he is about everything.

- I'm back liveblogging for the score this evening. Here's the link if you want to following along there instead (as well).

- Has anyone else had problems clicking the red "stats" button below the game scores at NHL.com? I was having issues with both firefox and safari (nothing would happen when I clicked the button to see the extended stats, etc), but figured out a go-around: when you type in www.nhl.com/scores, your browser will re-direct you to www2.nhl.com/scores. Simply highlight the "2" in the www string in the address, delete it and press enter. Your browser should refresh at www.nhl.com/scores where the stats button is actually active.

Of course, I don't know if this has been an issue for anyone else. If not, please ignore my rambling.

Flames/Flyers gameday links

- I have a gamethread going up at SBN in a few minutes. In it, I discuss some of the Flyers strengths and weaknesses.

- Another piece appears over at Flames Nation, where I look at the new potential lines and match-ups. TLP's gameday post is there as well.

- Matt has a good couple of posts on the Jokinen trade (he's not a fan). Tom Benjamin weighs in here as well. While WI waxes poetic about Lombo's possible mental state after the deal. Seems the speedster was more popular than I thought.

XMP3 Contest winner is...

...Brent G! Who guessed Leopold outright. Congrats, Brent, and make sure to send me your details via email so I can ship all the fancy technological wonderfulness your way.

Thanks for playing everyone. It was interesting right up until the last day.

Deadline

- As I've done the last two years, I'll be following Jay Onraits hilarious blog on TSN. Recommended.

- My Flames coverage will appear elsewhere, as mentioned. That is, if Sutter ends up doing anything.

- First trade of the day is Antoine Vermette for Pascal Leclaire. Both players grossly underperfomed this season, so it seems a sensible swap. My thoughts? CBJ wins this trade. I have a feeling Leclaire had himself a "Raycroft rookie" year under Hitchcock's system last season and isn't any where near that good in actuality. And you know what I think medicore goalies are worth (nothing).

As for Vermette, he's been a 20 goal guy since he broke into the league, aside from this year. His SH% is 6.38%, whereas it was around 13% previously. He's almost guaranteed to rebound, especially if he lands on Nash's line.

- Oh god, Damien Cox is on TSN today. Coxbloc must be thrilled.

- Another day, another contribution to Cycle Like the Sedins. This time, James asked me what I'd o if I was Sutter at the deadline. Any regular reader of this space can probably guess my moves.

- Stuff is already starting to fly around. James Mirtle and Oilers/Flames Nation are both keeping track of all the moves being made.

Im surprised the Leafs claimed Gerber. I guess he's better than Curtis Joseph and Justin Pogge in terms of being a back-up.

- Dallas claims Morrison off of waivers. Hate to tell you this, Hull, but...Brendan Morrison sucks.

- How is it both Gerber and Morrison were claimed off of waivers, but not Miro Satan? That's craziness - he's by far the most useful player out of the 3.

- It's been said that Deadline day is "Christmas #2 in Canada". To be honest, I think I like today more than Christmas. Does that make me a bad person?

- Rumors are, the Flames have a deal in place for Jokinen: Lombo, Prust and a 1st rounder. Yikes.

- Good to see the EDM Oilers doing absolutely nothing. Actually, I would prefer they go into "buy" mode just to ensure future mediocrity.

- Lots of stuff has happened while I was away for lunch. Here's my quick takes on the trades that stood out:

- Guerin for a 5th round conditional? Really? I mean, the guy hasn't had a great season, but that's absolutely peanuts. Surely he should be worth more than Kevin Lalande? Speaking of which...

Sutter moved Lalande to CBJ for a 4th rounder. An ECHL goaltender for...well, anything is a steal, let alone a draft pick inside the top 4 rounds. I have no idea why Howson would do such a thing.

- Pahlsson to the Blackhawks makes all sort of sense for Chicago. They just got a lot better methinks, with a center who can play the tough minutes.

- The 3-way deal that saw EDM get O'Sullivan was shrewd move on the Oilers part. I think they got the best player in the deal, since Cole was having a lousy year and wasn't going to return anyways. Not sure why LAK gave up on O'Sullivan like that - I mean, Williams is a good player, but really, really, fragile.

- Biggest joke of the day? Derek Morris for three (!) roster players (Kalinin, Dawes and Prucha). Horrible overpayment for pending UFA Morris, who isn't all that great anyways. Sather screws the pooch again.

- How abut those Coyotes? They added Upshall, Kalinin, Dawes, Prucha, Lombardi and Prust today (and whatever they got back for Telqvist) and lost a back-up goalie, Derek Morris, Daniel Carcillo and 41 point-man Olli Jokinen. Now that's how to sell at the deadline.

- The biggest moves may be the ones that didn't happen - namely Bouwmeester stayed in Florida. That's a mistake in my opinion, but we'll see how it goes. If the Panthers lose in the first round and Jay bolts in the off-season...ouch.

Deadline gear-up link-o-rama - Updated

Tomorrow's the big day and the hockey blogosphere is aflutter with anticipation. Following is just a small sampling of some of the good stuff out there.

- My new SBN overlords have a nifty little Trade deadline hub which will aggregate all the deadline stories in the SBN universe as they appear. My Flames coverage tomorrow will appear there, while I will stick my general comments in this space.

I believe Flames Nation and Oilers Nation will be gearing up there coverage as well.

- Matt discusses the deadlines potential winners and losers.

- Lowetide looks at 10 questions facing the Oilers heading into tomorrow.

- Puck Daddy wonders if Pronger is headed back to St. Louis. I've never really understood all this "Pronger is available" talk given that he's signed to a decent contract through next season. Wyshynski rationalizes it thusly;

...Dumping salary can be more vital than holding the line on them. The Ducks have a summer of unprecedented potential player turnover ahead of them, and shedding the final year of Pronger for younger players and picks would help with the flexibility.

But I don't really buy that myself. Hell, the Ducks just added a small portion of salary via the Kunitz deal, plus they have over $7M needlessly invested in the crease (meaning they are much more "cutable" costs elsewhere). If anything, the Ducks should be looking to keep Pronger given their high potential turn-over, his at-or-below value contract and the fact that plugging the resultant hole he would leave in the roster would be a monumental task.

- Peripherally related, Kevin over at Barry Melrose Rocks takes James Duthie to task for dusting off the old "bloggers are loners in their mothers basement! So their (trade) discussions are worthless!" thing. I wonder how long this baseless smear will stick around? While I know a lot of bloggers that speculate on potential trades and such, there's only one that is famous for pulling stuff out of his ass and calling it a "rumor" (no link for him...you all know who Im talking about).

- Earl Sleek gives us an in-depth run-down of the Ducks situation. Only Montreal is close in terms of pending free agents, so this is likely to be one hell of an interesting deadline for Anaheim fans, especially since the club is battling for it's play-off life currently. His conclusion? Everyone is staying.

- Finally, Jaspers Rink take a long look at the Capitals prospects for moving...uh...prospects for some help.

Update - things are already getting interesting. Flames have plucked Nycholat off of waivers (meh), while Pittsburgh has dropped Miro Satan into the waiver pool. I know the dude's been a disappointment relative to expectations this season, but he hasn't exactly been useless. He's on pace to score more than 20 goals and his ES stats aren't exactly terrible. They aren't good, but they aren't terrible.

Is he a player of interest for Calgary? Could he shore up the forward depth with Bourque et al injured, or would he just be another "Bertuzzi" needing shelter in the top 6?

Whether the Flames are interested or not, I can't see Satan lasting the day on waivers.

- Also: check out the Forechecker's Mysterious NHL rumor Generator. Great stuff.

Assessing the trade fodder

Only two more days till what I'm sure will soon will be declared a National holiday in Canada: trade deadline day. Probably a good time to suss out the sellers, buyers and what's on the market.

Matt has the Standings up over at Battle of Alberta, which is a good place to start. While the final play-off spot is very much still in contention in the West, I think we can safely write-off NSH, STL, PHX and COL, all of whom would need the combination of a ungodly good run and a fall from grace by those above in order squeek in. So, they'll be sellers.

It's a little more clear cut in the East: anyone below PIT currently is looking towards next year. That list includes TOR, OTT, TBL, ATL and NYI.

Altogether, that's 9 obvious "sellers". Here's a list of their relevant trade pieces:

ATL
- Marty Reasoner, C (1M, UFA) - *bet you he goes to CBJ*
- Niclas Havelid, D (2.9M, UFA)
- Kari Lehtonen, G (3.0M, RFA)

COL
- Tyler Arnason *wretch*, C (1.675M, UFA)
- Ian Laperriere, C (1.15M, UFA)
- Jordan Leopold, D (1.5M, UFA)
- Andrew Raycroft *snicker*, G (800k, UFA)

NSH
- Steve Sullivan, RW (3.2M, UFA)
- Radek Bonk, C (1.475M, UFA)
- Greg DeVries, D (2.5M, UFA)
- Greg Zanon, D (725k, UFA)
- Ville Koistinen, D (700k, UFA)

NYI
- Bill Guerin, RW (4.5M, UFA)
- Doug Weight, C (4.3M, UFA)
- Mike Sillinger, C (2.2M, UFA)
- Andy Hilbert, C (675k, UFA)

OTT
- Mike Comrie, C (1.118M, UFA) *I'd laugh my ass off if they traded him*
- Chris Neil, RW (1.1M, UFA)
- Filip Kuba, D (3.0M, UFA)

PHX
- Steve Reinprecht, C (2.0M, UFA)
- Derek Morris, D (3.917, UFA)
- Olli Jokinen, C (5.25M, signed till 9/10)
- Ken Klee, D, (561k, UFA)

STL
- Keith Tkachuk, C/W (4.0M, UFA)
- Manny Legace, G (1.399M, UFA)

TBL
- Gary Roberts, LW (2.07M, UFA)
- Mark Recchi, RW (1.5M, UFA)
- Matt Pettinger, LW (468k, UFA)
- Marek Malik, D (1.156M, UFA)
- Cory Murphy, D (186k, UFA)

TOR
- Nik Antropov, C (2.05M, UFA)
- Dominic Moore, C (900k, UFA)
- Brad May, LW (310k, UFA)
- Curtis Joseph, G (700k, UFA)

34 players altogether, most of whom I figure will be in play on March 4. From a Flames perspective, I would guess Guerin, Leopold, Roberts, Recchi, Reinprecht, Sullivan and Zanon would all potentially be of interest. I included Jokinen here even though he's signed for one more season due to persistent rumors that he might be available at the deadline.

What this doesn't include, of course, is potential rentals or salary dumps from teams currently in the running. I'll add those in no particular order here:

- Scott Niedermayer, D
- Jay Bouwmeester, D
- Brendan Morrison, C
- Todd Marchant, C
- Steve Montador, D
- Patrice Bergeron, C
- Manny Fernandez, G
- Maxim Afinogenov, RW
- Tim Connolly, C
- Ales Kotalik, RW
- Teppo Numminen, D
- Todd Bertuzzi, RW (wishful thinking on my part)
- Cory Sarich, D
- Nikolai Khabibulin, G
- Christian Backman, D
- Darryl Sydor, D
- Mikael Samuelsson, RW
- Ty Conklin, G
- Erik Cole, LW
- Dwayne Roloson, G
- Karlis Skrastins, D
- Richard Zednik, D
- Craig Anderson, G
- Kyle Calder, LW
- Tom Preissing, D (on waivers today)
- Marian Gabork, RW
- Martin Skoula, D
- MA Bergeron, D
- Niklas Backstrom, G
- Alex Tanguay, LW
- Saku Koivu, C
- Alex Kovalev, RW
- Brian Gionta, RW
- John Madden, C
- Bobby Holik, C
- Scott Gomez, C
- Chris Drury, C
- Wade Redden, D
- Paul Mara, D
- Dmitri Kalinin, D
- Daniel Brier, C
- Mike Knuble, RW
- Martin Biron, G
- Miro Satan, RW
- Peter Sykora, RW
- Ruslan Fedotenko, LW
- Hal Gill, D
- Mike Grier, RW
- Matthias Ohlund, D
- Taylor Pyatt, LW
- Kyle Wellwood, C
- Michael Nylander, C

That's an additional 51 players, and the list isn't exhaustive. I left off guys like Mike Cammalleri who, despite being a pending UFA, are likely to be kept by their clubs for the stretch drive and play-off run. Obviously a lot of these guys won't actually be in play either and a lot of them will be pricier than just a mere pick or prospect.

All in all I think this pretty much comprises the GM's shopping list heading into the deadline. Anyone there catch your fancy? What would you be willing to move for him?

Tampa in Town

- I'll have a gamethread up around 3pm today so check it out. Im really digging some of the functionality at SBN so far.

- James O'Brien requested an "All Decade Team" from me this week. My picks were posted today over at Cycle Like Sedins.

- My weekly fantasy piece for rototimes.com should go live sometime this evening or tomorrow. This one is a "hot or not" tour through the Pacific division.

- The XMP3 contest will be ending with the trade deadline on Wed. If Sutter does indeed stand-pat, then I'll have to figure out another way to give the Satellite radio away.

Flames Gameday

- I have pieces at both Flames Nation and the New place going up today. It'll be my first gamethread at SBN, so make sure to stop by and inflate my comment numbers.

- In other news, I've had requests for material from the Score, Cycle Like Sedins and Sean Leahy this week. Im still struggling to get all the pieces out, so I'll let you know if/when any of the stuff is published.

- I'm hearing whispers the Flames are looking at some big name defensemen. Who would you prefer: Bouwmeester, Pronger or Niedermayer? There are plus and minuses to all of them.

UPDATE - My Puck Daddy bit is up today.

UPDATE 2 - My piece for the Score went up today too.

NYR - unluckiest team in the league?

To follow up on my thoughts on the Rangers, they out-shot the Leafs in Tort's first game, but lost in a shoot-out. They scored one goal that game (and none in the shoot-out).

Thus far this evening they are outshooting the Panthers 39-20...and losing 2-1. They may yet tie it up, but I doubt it considering the way their season has gone. It's like watching a good poker player making all right calls during hand, only to get rivered by some clueless schlub chasing a flush.

I can't imagine how frustrating it must be for NYR fans. Im pissed off because I own Lundqvist in a couple pools but...yeesh...

And the first big trade goes to...

ANA and PIT!

Kunitz and scrub (Tangradi) for Ryan Whitney. This means:

- PIT kind of gave up on Whitney (too early in my estimation).
- Kunitz is one lucky bastard. He goes from playing with Ryan Getzlaf to Sidney Crosby (or Malkin).
- Bobby Ryan is about to be promoted to the top line in ANA.
- The Ducks may be looking to move one of their big boys on the back-end come March 04. Prongers name has been in the news, but I personally assume it will be Niedermayer (pending UFA).

If it turns out to be Scott who is available, I wonder if Sutter will make a play for him at the deadline? And by "wonder", I mean "hope". He would be an excellent addition to the Flames in the short term. He's still a highly capable player and would be invaluable in the post season - he could probably teach Dion a thing or two as well.

May I present...

Matchsticks and gasoline.

Im playing with the big boys now!

I'd like to get an active Flames community going at my new digs, so please head over and have a read. You can also get involved with fanposts and fanshots and all sorts of other fancy SBN apps. There's lots of interesting stuff coming out of SBN these days and they have a great stable of bloggers under their umbrella.

As for this space, I won't abandon it. This will be a "base of operations" for me, where I'll link to my various stories across the web as well as address general NHL stuff that catches my interest. Long, rambling pieces like "The trouble with drafting goalies" will go up here, for instance.

My Flames-centric thoughts will appear almost exclusively elsewhere from now on, however. Im going to take an irreverent tact with my work at Flamesnation, while gameday posts and more serious stats-based inquiries will happen at Matchsticks.

It's Brave New World people.

Bouwmeester bidding

In a rare bout of candor, a GM has come forward with a a price-list for a player at the deadline. That GM is Jacques Martin and the player is Jay Bouwmeester:

''I think the priority for us right now is to improve our club, to make the playoffs this year and I don't want to disturb that,'' Martin said during a conference call Monday.

So interested teams shouldn't call the Panthers with a package of picks and prospects. Florida wants roster players who can help it make the playoffs for the first time since the 1999-2000 season, get some home playoff games then boost next year's season-ticket sales.

Martin has declared he would like to upgrade the Panthers' group of centers and add forward depth. Though the Panthers allow the most shots per game in the NHL (34.2 going into Tuesday) and Martin rarely meets a defensive forward he doesn't like, the Panthers also entered Tuesday's game in Boston with the sixth-fewest goals allowed per game and No. 7 penalty kill. What they want from any forward additions is more offense, especially as they would be giving up their best offensive defenseman in Bouwmeester.

I think this puts the Flames firmly in the running for Bouwmeester, even with the current spate of injuries. We all know that Sutter will want to get his hands on Bouwmeester. We also know the club has a log-jam at center (Langkow, Lombardi, Boyd, Primeau, Conroy, Lundmark and Backlund in the wings), which is where the Panthers are looking to improve. Does Lombardi+Sarich+pick/prospect get it done? And, more importantly, is it worth it? Im reading tea leaves here and not necessarily condoning one action over the other...

Gameday - CBJ in CGY

- The hurt is coming fast and furious now. Mark Giordano joins Daymond Langkow, Rene Bourque and Wayne Primeau on the sidelines. Gio hurt his shoulder in the Minny game and is likely out for the remainder. I doubt we even see him in the post season. That just sucks.

- The Bert/Lundmark/Greentree line held it's own in EDM, which was faintly surprising to me. Still, it's not a trio I'd run out against a club with any sort of significant depth. That's not to denounce the efforts the two fringe guys put in, but they're in the AHL for a reason. Playing them with one of the worst forwards on the Flames at ES is basically attaching a bulls-eye to their backs.

- Darryl Sutter's trade deadline is looking much more interesting than it was just two weeks ago. Calgary now has significant depth issues, especially up front, with a brutal 7 game road trip on the horizon. In January, another top 6 forward was a want - it's now been upgraded to a need, assuming the team's goal is finishing third in the conference.

- Columbus in town and Im heading to the game with Matt, who was kind enough to share his tickets. Im looking forward to watching the Blue Jackets because I consider them a very interesting club and think they're going to make some noise in the near future. Im half cheering for them to make the play-offs, plus I have Steve Mason in Mirtle's blogger invitational pool, so it's a bit of a win-win for me this evening.

- Calgary's PP is abysmal right now. I noticed last game that individual Flames are being isloated too easily during puck pursuit and retrieval in the offensive zone, which is something which shouldn't happen with the man advantage. I don't know if the players just aren't trying hard enough (one of the few times you'll see me use that phrase) or are thinking too much about setting up in their various zone during entry, but the puck support has got to improve.

- Dion Phaneuf is hitting bottom. He has to improve going forward. He was a complete train-wreck last game from my where I was sitting: he was the sole cause of the Oilers 5on3 PP in the third period, he lost his man on the cycle leading to Cole's goal and there was a handful of other scoring chances while he was on the ice. Both his decision making and execution leave a lot to be desired currently. Thank god he's still just 23 and has time to work on things.

What's going on in New York? - Updated

I've some interest in the Big Apple this year because I have Henrik Lundqvist in a couple of money pools. This month has been a tough one for me on the fantasy goalie front, therefore, since the Rags have managed all of two victories and are sliding down the standings like a dead slug on a wall. With Tom Renney undoubtedly set to walk the plank, I figured it was time to take a look at the Blueshirts numbers.

First, the shots and percentages. As you can see, the Rangers are well in the black in terms of offensive zone possession and Henrik Lundqvist is again holding up his end of the bargain at ES (SV% .919). At first glance, these are the underlying figures of a first rate club, yes?

Aside from the putrid ES SH%, of course. I haven't looked at the league average, but I'm guessing 6% is easily one of the worst out there. Only two Rangers have an individual ES SH% above 10% and one is Lauri Korpikoski (a rookie who ironically has the worst corsi rating on the club during his limited time). That inefficiency is the main culprit behind New York's 2nd worst ES goal total (92, ahead of only NSH) and resultant abysmal ES GD (-19). On the "crappy bounces" front, you can also add NYR's bottom of the barrel 13 SHG against (one @ 5on3!). Shorties are just wanton hockey gods acting out - they are rarely predictable or repeatable and therefore not really indicative of a club's abilities.

So, lots of bad luck right? I mean, the Rangers out-shoot their opponents quite frequently, have a good goalie, but can't seem to score...

The thing is, there's suggestions of a congenital defect in Gotham and it's tough to decide if the cause is systemic or the personnel. Here's what Im talking about:

NYR had a miserable SH% last year too. That club managed the third most shots on net in the league (2579) but only scored the 25th most goals (205), again leaving them with a terrible SH% (7.9%). I figured that was a fluke (one of those years), but their overall rate has actually marginally decreased this season (7.2%), which seems pretty fishy.

In addition, Hockey Numbers has the Rangers expected ES GD in the red (-3) despite their out-shooting, thanks to a league worst 0.9 SQF (shot quality for) rating. Eyeballing the list, I'd say that falls well below the league average, which is probably around 0.99-1.00. Fugly.

So who's to blame here? Is Renney extolling a "shoot from anywhere" philosophy which is resulting in a lot of crappy shots and not much else? Or is the roster just made up of a lot of lousy shooters?

It may be both. There's no arguing that Sather has spent money poorly in New York. Drury, Gomez and Redden are grossly overcompensated and it's not like the gaps are being filled by calder candidates on entry level deals. There doesn't seem to be a single Ranger whose career shooting average crests 13% (outside of Markus Naslund who has hovered around 11% the last three seasons now that he's on the down slope of his career). Gomez has always been more of a passer than a scorer as his 7.8% career rate attests and Drury is around 12% during his lifetime (his 8.9% rate this year is the lowest of his career). Aaron Voros currently leads the team in terms of SH% (12.1) and is one of only four Rangers in double digits (!). Calgary, for the sake of comparison, has eight skaters in double digits, five of which have a better number than Voros.

Overall, it looks to me like a poor mix of players and a dash of shit luck for flavor. NYR doesn't have anyone really running the table in terms of bounces and a couple of guys are under performing relative to their career norms (I'm looking at you, Drury). Not to mention all those SHG goals against. Of course, there's also a ton of bad money at the top of the roster in Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Redden = $25M, meaning acquiring a couple of "first shot" snipers to improve the team is nigh impossible*.

Perhaps some of the blame falls to Renney as well - he seems to be running a Red Wing/SJS type system which is obviously ill-suited to his team. High SF volumes are good in theory, but it helps to have a roster that is talented enough to make something of the "shoot from anywhere" philosophy. As painful as it may be to consider, a Lemaire-style system of trap/limit quality chances against/pounce on opposition errors might be a better fit, although Minnesota has an even lower expected ES GD than NYR this year, so who knows.

Anyways, if I was a Rangers suit with my finger on the button, I'd probably keep Renney and fire Sather, who I suspect is the real problem. Then I'd try to sell a couple of the bad contracts for pennies on the dollar (Gomez to CBJ for a lesser roster player and Redden to whoever would want him for anything they'd be willing to give), either at the deadline or during the summer. NYR has never had trouble attracting free gents, so all they need is some cap flexibility and a GM that can actually identify talent and pay for it at or below market value.

*(The Rangers have over 40M committed to 9 skaters next year, with the cap poised to either stagnate or go down. Rough).

Update - as I was writing this, the Rangers fired Renney. I predicted as much on Twitter last night after the loss, so it isn't a surprise. Murphy's Law says the Rags fortune turns around a bit in the next little while and the new guy will be credited with righting the ship.

Gameday - Battle of Alberta

Good time for the Oil to face the Flames if you're from Stinktown: for the first time in awhile, Calgary is decimated by injuries. Not only are Langkow and Bourque down for the count, but Mark Giordano will also be absent this evening due to an "upper body" injury. That means Jim Vandermeer back on the point and minor-leaguer Kyle Greentree slotting in at forward.

That leaves us with these probable combinations:

Bertuzzi-Conroy-Iginla
Cammalleri-Lombardi-Moss
Glencross-Boyd-Nystrom?
Greentree-Prust-Roy? (or empty)

Regehr-Aucoin
Phaneuf-Vandermeer
Sarich-Pardy

That's ugly folks. Do you see a line you'd trust to do the heavy lifting? Me neither.

- It'll be interesting to see what Keenan does with the lines, as the above is just me speculating. Im also semi-excited to see Kyle Greentree's first go in the NHL this year. The big winger leads the QC Flames with 28 goals and is second to only Lundmark in terms of points (50). Even if he's just a capable call-up now and then, I'd say the Flames won the Ramholt-Greentree deal.

- Lots of rumors popping up now that Bourque is porbably done for the regular season. I've heard a lot of mentions of Alexei Kovalev recently, which makes my skin crawl. From Matt's post on Kovalev here, you can see that the guy isn't - and has never been - a good ES player, which is what the Flames will need most now that Bourque is hurt.

Kovalev is a sort of Russian Bertuzzi - he has good puck skills and can be dangerous in certain situations but tends to be a liability otherwise. He isn't very fast, doesn't really play the game with much intensity and prefers the fancy play to the smart one. Trying to hide both him and Bert at ES would become quite the chore.

- The game thread at Flamesnation should be interesting. Both 'Nation' sites will be involved and the result should be some epic trash talking. Head over there to support the relatively few Flames fans, since there's bound to be a deluge of drunk, be-mulleted, semi-literates from up North flooding the place. My own humble contribution to the clash will appear in the big game post.

Let the Dealing Begin!

Sens acquire Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli from NYI for Chris Campoli and Mike Comrie (again).

Whhaaaaatt?

Why would two teams who don't have a snowballs chance in hell of making the post season bother swapping a couple of pending UFA's up front? I can see OTT maybe wanting Campoli, I guess, but moving a first round pick for 25+ games of Mike Comrie?

Nonsense.

"Hey, do you like this deck chair here...or...over there with these ones?"

It'd be hilarious if the Sens moved Comrie at the deadline for a couple of roster pieces, I guess. Otherwise, this move doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

Well, crap

Im going to avoid commenting on the Montreal Canadiens scandal because it all sounds like a tempest in a teapot to me. Plus Im sure none of the readers here care much either way.

The real bad news this morning is this.

RC made a comment last night that Keenan looked like "a man who'd just had to shoot his dog" at the presser when he was relaying the news of Bourque's injury to the gathered scribes.

Keenan's response is an appropriate one. It's hard to overemphasize what Bourque has meant to the club this year. In many ways, Bourque has been what Iginla was supposed to be: the Flame's difference maker at ES. Through 58 games, Bourque currently sits 11th in the league in terms of ESP with 38. That ties him with Marian Hossa and is 3 more than the Flames Captain.

Bourque has probably the best underlying numbers on the squad. He ranks first in terms of quality of competition (0.06), ESP/60 (3.20) and ES plus/minus (+20). True, there has been some luck involved, but let's not crash the guy's coming out party - he was propping up the Flames sagging top 6 in a lot of ways and his absence is going to take a big, wet bite out of Calgary's ES effectiveness. And Keenan knows it.

Bourque may have had the bounces this year, but it's hard to ague with the quality of his work. His puck pursuit and ability to win possession along the boards is top-notch. He has a hard shot, is a quick skater and often makes smart, simple plays. Even if his production wasn't what it is, Bourque has proven to be a useful, versatile forward by virtue of his good decision making and work ethic.

Given the recent slide by the club in terms of corsi and outshooting, Im honestly quite concerned about the Flames fortunes for the remainder of the regular season absent Bourque: they've lost a very good - and thus far very lucky - player. Thank god the club has a nice buffer between them and the rest of the division, because unless Iginla or Bertuzzi suddenly and dramatically improve, Calgary's top end has an ugly hole in it going forward.

Gameday - Flames in 'Sota

The Wild are an interesting team. Not interesting in the way they play, obviously, but interesing in that they are a study of the effects of coaching and organizational culture on performance. I mean, despite injuries, lack luster depth and changing personnel, Lemaire ALWAYS manages to make the Wild a challenging club to play against due to his unbending focus on defensive systems and discipline. As a result, Minnesota ALWAYS has good special teams and their goalies always have good to excellent Save percentages.

That's true again this season. Backstrom is a league leader in SV% and Minnesota has the best PK in the NHL. They've also taken the least amount of penalties, meaning a league low 25 PPG against. The Flames, owners of the 3rd best PK, have given up 36 PPG as a comparison.

Minny is a couple points out of play-off spot, despite being in the black in terms of GD. They can't really score at ES, having mostly to do with Gaborik's laughably fragile groin - not to mention frequent injuries to guys like Owen Nolan. At one point, the club was forced to deploy Brent Burns at forward due to all their injuries.

Whatever success the team has had this year has been propelled by the emergent Mikko Koivu. Mirtle has him as a Selke favorite, which is appropriate given the fact that he outscores some bloody tough competition without much help. I can't imagine the damage Koivu could do in an offense friendly system with some better linemates. He's the guy Jarome will see all night, no doubt, and definitely worth watching.

I think if the Flames play this bullshit run-and-gun style (that has victimized Kipper and garnered them all of 3 wins this month) tonight in Minnesota, they'll be eaten alive. Lemaire teams feast on turn-overs in the neutral and shallow defensive zones. They rigidly and methodically trap the life out of a team, each shift prodding the opposition for that wayward pass or frustrated deke into 3 players that results in an odd man rush going the other way. And then there's the always efficient Minnesota Wild special teams - another thing the Flames have been struggling with the last little while.

Nope, I don't like this match-up at all, given the way Calgary has been trending. I guess the good news is the Flames have superior depth (Moss/Glencross should do well again this evening) and more guys who can finish in the line-up. Perhaps that will see them through this evening...

Prediction - Calgary 3, Wild 2. Iginla, Lombardi and Moss for the Flames. Miettinen and Burns for Minny.

Go Flames.

Also, Check out FlamesNation for more of my thoughts on the February Flames as well as TLP's eventual gameday post.

INSTANT UPDATE - Flames will be without Daymond Langkow (hand) and Andre Roy (concussion) this evening. Both of them were hurt in the Vancouver match. According to Inside the Flames, Brandon Prust (meh) and Jim Vandermeer (bleh) will be drawing in their stead.

I assume what this means is a promotion for Boyd up to the 3rd line. Of course, I've assumed as much before only to be proven wrong...

Postgame thoughts

I've gotten away from doing postgame posts this year, mostly because I tend to offer my thoughts in game threads and the like. However, some stuff is rattling around in myhead after last nights gutpunch, so I figured I'd break the habit for now.

- The Canucks didn't score a single ES goal last night. One was on the PP, one was SH and the last was with the net empty. During the recent slide (in quality of play, rather than points acquired) the Flames have been losing the special teams battles for one reason or another. The first being that they've tended to take more penalties than their opponents: 12-4 (PIM) vs. PHX, 14-10 vs. LAK and 22-20 vs ANA.

Course, that wasn't the case last night, with Vancouver being the more penalized team. The problem was, the Flames PK and PP were simply atrocious - They allowed a goal and 13 shots against a man down, while they generated just five shots with the man advantage (and gave up another goal). In PHX they gave up another 7 PP shots and a goal, in LA they were outshot 6-3 on special teams and again in Anaheim 9-7. It's good to be a strong ES team, but not if you're going to give it all back on ST. Calgary needs to either get more disciplined or to improve at getting shots on the PP (or deterring shots on the PK). The Flames outshout Vancouver 36-28 at ES and would have won the game handily with at least an average performance on ST's.

- Segue to - the Flames outplayed Vancouver at 5on5 last night, but Im going to preface the corsi outcomes with two comments I made during the game:

#1) What a friggen disaster that guy was (Bertuzzi). Stupid offensive zone penalty? Check. Give-aways at the offensive blueline? Check. Give-aways in his own zone? Check. Minus player? Check.

F!

#2) I effing LOVE the Langkow/Moss/Glencross line. Stroke o’ genius.

On the other hand, the Good fellas are getting pwned tonight.

And with that, here's the reveal. The Flames outplayed the Canucks at ES on the strength of one line: Moss-Langkow-GLencross, who simply beat their opponents brains in. Iginla and Bourque basically played the Sedins to even (although they outscored them 2-0) while Bert et al. lost out to Sundin and Kesler.

To be fair to the good fellas, they were facing some stiff competition. On the other hand, last night was a clear example of Bertuzzi's "sore thumbness". I mean, the guy rules in loose shinny games against teams like PHX, where his dangles work and his poor decisions aren't punished - but against a stronger foe with any sort of discipline or structure, the guy just turns into a turn-over machine. I couldn't count how many times he gave the puck away around the bluelines versus the 'Nucks. Dude completely hamstrung his line last night and I haven't even discussed his unending string of stupid offensive zone penalties.

Course, that's apparently not how Keenan saw things. Bertuzzi's final ice-time? 20:13. -1, 4 PIM. No shots on net. On the other hand, David Moss played 14 minutes, had an assist, was +1 and 6 shots on net.

So damn annoying.

- The discrepancy between Mark Giordano and Dion Phaneuf's ice-times (31 v 11 minutes) is ridiculous, given that there really isn't a discrepancy between their play at the moment (to my eye at least). Actually, I would argue that Dion was the worse of the two last night, although it's tough to gauge Gios performance given his limited showing.

Phaneuf, though - yeesh. He had me grinding my teeth something fierce. The tools are all still there with the kid, but his decision-making lately simply drives me up the wall. There were a couple of WTF IS HE DOING? moments for me last night in particular and Im getting to the point where Im wondering if the leap will ever really happen (rather than when). Ed Jovonovski was a heralded defender in his youth, but his defensive game never turned the corner either. Now he's just an over-priced 2nd pairing guy that's decent on the PP. One starts to wonder if Dion is on the same road...

- Miikka Kiprusoff and is getting closer to making me a believer again.



He's been outstanding the last little while, with many of his saves being reminiscent of his previous form. If he can keep this up - if this isn't just a "nice run" - we could really have something here. Assuming the Flames get back to limiting their opponents to less than 40 shots on net, of course.

Gameday - Canucks in town

There's good and bad stuff happening in Flamesland these days. The bad: Jarome Iginla's play continues to be underwhelming, as does Phaneuf's. It's all but certain that neither will be in the running for a trophy by years end, which is admittedly a pretty high standard to expect. In addition, the team's defensive play has been shoddy since the all-star break in general and really seemed to step off a cliff during the recent 3 game roadie. The 5 of 6 they won in the Pacific was Kipper and bounces, mostly, because the club seemed to forget how to skate, pass, or cover people in their own end. If that continues, the club can say good-bye to their sizable cushion on the NW.

On the other hand, there's been some nice individual efforts from guys like Matt Lombardi, Rene Bourque (who Im developing a man-crush for in a totally hockey-limited and heretosexual way) and, surprisingly, Cory Sarich (on pace for a CAREER YEAR offensively.). Then there's Moss and Glencross, who both continue to do damage from the third line, no matter whom they're centered by.

Of course, Kipper was the guy who stole points in both Anaheim and LA recently, which may be the best news of all, and I would be even more jazzed about his recent upswing had he not given a 5-spot to the woeful Coyotes. The problem was probably more the guys in front of him that night, however, since once the Flames got up 6-2, the game turned into pond hockey and you could just see the players relax to the point of apathy when it came defensive zone assignments. Not that Im condoning that sort of complacency nor the shit show that followed, but human nature being what it is, maybe we can give the boys a pass since they won...assuming it doesn't carry over to this game.

Speaking of which, the Canucks have busted out of their own doldrums and have emerged as the only team that has an outside shot of contending for the NW Division crown. They have two solid lines now that they've moved Sundin to play with Kesler and Demitra, although that has created a potentially exploitable third group, where AV has sequestered the "underachievers" (Pyatt, Bernier, Raymond?).

For more thoughts on the Canucks and the game tonight, visit here.

Prediction - I don't like the first game back from road trips - especially ones where the team played terrible but still managed to win (meaning they probably didn't learn the lessons they would have had they lost). Canucks 4, Flames 2. Sundin, Burrows, Sedin (2) for Vancouver. Moss and Boyd for Calgary.

Why I look at the numbers

Michael Lewis, author of the seminal book "Moneyball", penned a piece on under-appreciated basketball player Shane Battier for the NY Times recently. It's a long, involved 8 pager that discusses the "new stats" movement in major sports in general, and provides a few quotables on why I - and some of the more numerically inclined bloggers upon whom I rely on so much - employ seemingly foreign and arcane figures and percentages for discussion and analysis of the sport. A taste:

In 2005, the Houston Rockets’ owner, Leslie Alexander, decided to hire new management for his losing team and went looking specifically for someone willing to rethink the game. “We now have all this data,” Alexander told me. “And we have computers that can analyze that data. And I wanted to use that data in a progressive way. When I hired Daryl, it was because I wanted somebody that was doing more than just looking at players in the normal way. I mean, I’m not even sure we’re playing the game the right way.”

The virus that infected professional baseball in the 1990s, the use of statistics to find new and better ways to value players and strategies, has found its way into every major sport. Not just basketball and football, but also soccer and cricket and rugby and, for all I know, snooker and darts — each one now supports a subculture of smart people who view it not just as a game to be played but as a problem to be solved. Outcomes that seem, after the fact, all but inevitable — of course LeBron James hit that buzzer beater, of course the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl — are instead treated as a set of probabilities, even after the fact. The games are games of odds. Like professional card counters, the modern thinkers want to play the odds as efficiently as they can; but of course to play the odds efficiently they must first know the odds. Hence the new statistics, and the quest to acquire new data, and the intense interest in measuring the impact of every little thing a player does on his team’s chances of winning. In its spirit of inquiry, this subculture inside professional basketball is no different from the subculture inside baseball or football or darts.

The article is interesting, also, due to basketball's similarity to hockey, relative to say, baseball. The latter is more static than the other two, and the dynamic nature of hockey and basketball has created challenges in teasing apart individual effects on winning (and has often been used as a bludgeon by anti-new-stats folks to denounce efforts to understand the game quantitatively):

There are other things Morey has noticed too, but declines to discuss as there is right now in pro basketball real value to new information, and the Rockets feel they have some. What he will say, however, is that the big challenge on any basketball court is to measure the right things. The five players on any basketball team are far more than the sum of their parts; the Rockets devote a lot of energy to untangling subtle interactions among the team’s elements. To get at this they need something that basketball hasn’t historically supplied: meaningful statistics. For most of its history basketball has measured not so much what is important as what is easy to measure — points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots — and these measurements have warped perceptions of the game. (“Someone created the box score,” Morey says, “and he should be shot.”) How many points a player scores, for example, is no true indication of how much he has helped his team. Another example: if you want to know a player’s value as a ­rebounder, you need to know not whether he got a rebound but the likelihood of the team getting the rebound when a missed shot enters that player’s zone.

There's no question that hockey analysis is just taking it's first few stumbling steps in this direction. We're only now starting to learn which stats are truly indicative (and predictive) of winning and which are merely effects of other processes (such as chance or randomness). When I started this thing a few years ago, I was introduced to the parsing of stats into situation (ES, PP, PK) and the tracking of offensive efficiency (ie: rates) rather than summing totals. Recently, the focus has become percentages, the role of chance and variance over spans of time, and how those can potentially result in the over or undervaluation of a player.

We aren't there yet and some mistakes are going to be made along the way, Im sure...but my education in the quantitative methods of understanding hockey has actually informed and improved the way I watch the games now, I think. Perhaps what might be most interesting in the long run, however, is how methods of analysis will converge across different (yet similar) sports:

One well-known statistic the Rockets’ front office pays attention to is plus-minus, which simply measures what happens to the score when any given player is on the court. In its crude form, plus-minus is hardly perfect: a player who finds himself on the same team with the world’s four best basketball players, and who plays only when they do, will have a plus-minus that looks pretty good, even if it says little about his play. Morey says that he and his staff can adjust for these potential distortions — though he is coy about how they do it — and render plus-minus a useful measure of a player’s effect on a basketball game. A good player might be a plus 3 — that is, his team averages 3 points more per game than its opponent when he is on the floor. In his best season, the superstar point guard Steve Nash was a plus 14.5. At the time of the Lakers game, Battier was a plus 10, which put him in the company of Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett, both perennial All-Stars. For his career he’s a plus 6. “Plus 6 is enormous,” Morey says. “It’s the difference between 41 wins and 60 wins.” He names a few other players who were a plus 6 last season: Vince Carter, Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady.

Corsi, anyone?

Stop it. Just stop it.

Im not going to do a thorough fisking of Eric Francis' column on Jarome Iginla from this morning, because it basically fisks itself with stuff like this:

The difference between this year and years past is the cast of characters surrounding him. Given the extraordinary depth Darryl Sutter has finally managed to fill the Flames roster with, Iginla is no longer required to carry the team offensively as in years past.

Instead, he can use the attention he draws as one of the game's most complete players to distribute the puck more, allowing finishers like Mike Cammalleri to shine.

There are only so many goals to go around, and with the team on pace for one of the franchise's most successful regular seasons, why should anyone question how it's getting done.

Got that? Offense is a zero-sum game on a hockey team and the Flames depth is *stealing Iginla's goals*. The conclusion here is that Iginla's scoring is down not in spite of the club's improvement but because of it*.

*(this might actually be a valid inference if the Flames increased depth had resulted in a reduction in Iginla's ice-time. Of course, it hasn't. Iginla is right in line with his ES ice time from last year and his PP ice has actually increased slightly.)

There's more fellating in the article, ranging from claiming Iginla is a Hart candidate this season (sorry, he isn't), to pointing out he's highly durable (making him a great leader. Like...Brendan...Morrison?).

Look, Im not on a witch-hunt here. I still think Jarome Iginla is a great guy, a great player and an asset to the team. But don't piss in my face and tell me it's raining. Iginla has taken a significant step back from his last two seasons and whether it's due to teammates, injury, personal issues or just plain bad luck, the Iggy of 08/09 ain't the guy who dominated the Western Conference the last two seasons. There's reams and reams of data proving that out for anyone willing to look at it, not to mention it's plain as day to the fans who have watched him struggle to be effective this month.

It's stuff like this that's made me turn away from the MSM the last few years. Insight and scrutiny is totally absent, instead replaced by cheerleading and question-begging.

Jarome Iginla has a wife and mother - let them massage his shoulders and tell him he's still great. Leave the column space for, you know, actual analysis.

Diagnosing Iginla's ills

I don't think there's any denying now that Jarome Iginla in struggling. He has been for awhile, except the issues were rendered seemingly irrelevant by the teams success.

Well, now that the depth guys have cooled off a bit, the fact that Jarome has become Jarmoe is definitely influencing the Flames record to the bad. Before proceeding, perhaps I should firmly establish that Iginla is indeed having an off-year, since the guy is still inside the top 10 scorers in the league.

First, the recent struggles. Iginla has all of 2 goals in 2009. That's 19 games. He is currently on pace for 30 goals, his lowest total since 1999 (!). He has two points in his last five games and is a -5 five over that span.

What's more significant is the fact that Iginla isn't a difference-maker at ES this season. Here are his pertinent underlying 5-on-5 stats from last year and this one, just for the sake of comparison:

07/08: 2.85 ESP/60, 3.68 GFON/60, 2.21 GAON/60, +32 (!)
08/09: 2.16 ESP/60, 3.17 GFON/60, 2.88 GA/60, +4

Iginla is less efficient at producing points this season and more apt to get scored on. In 07/08, he scored the most ES points in the Western conference (65) and was third overall in the NHL by that measure ahead of guys like Joe Thornton and Pavel Datsyuk. This year, he's tied for 17th in the league with Travis Zajac and Rene Bourque. The difference between his ES ice time from the two seasons is nominal as well, with him averaging just 30 seconds more/game last year over this one.

What's more, Iginla is actually less effective on the PP this year as well. His previous PPP/60 rate was a team best 5.37. This year? 4.74. In addition, he doesn't appear to be the engine driving success with the man advantage anymore either: Iginla's GFON-GFOFF differential was +5.31 in 07/08, which has shrank to just +1.91 this season. The be fair, that has a lot to do with the team's improvement (the 2nd unit actually scores sometimes this year), but it still highlights the fact that his GFON rate has fallen by nearly 1 full point per hour (7.69 versus 6.77).

It's not just that the performance is there but the results are lacking. Jarome has looked ineffective by my eye for a large portion of year. Aside from the occasional bitch-slapping of a weak sister, Iginla's game has been a lot of frustration and perimeter play. He can't seem to bear down on chances like he has previously and his shots are all too frequently wide, blocked or easily stopped (accounting for his 0.57/game drop in shots on net). Iginla's board work and puck possession has really fallen by the way-side by my eye as well: separating Iginla from the biscuit used to be a herculean task, reserved for only the best checkers and defenseman on the other team. Now, Iginla loses puck battles and races more often than not. For my money, Rene Bourque, Curtis Glencross and David Moss have been superior to Jarome along the boards and down low in the offensive zone in terms of winning possession.

So what are the choices here in terms of explanations? "Lost-a-step", injury or circumstances...

The first possibility I dismiss immediately. The difference between 30 and 31 is marginal and he is the best conditioned athlete on the club by all accounts. And it's not like Iginla is sitting fat-and-sassy at home, enjoying his $7M pay-cheque and yawning at reports of his ineffectiveness - the guy isn't Alexi Yashin. He's roundly considered one of the most competitive players and best leaders by his peers.

The second option is possible I suppose, although one wonders what kind of ailment effects players in such a manner that a.) it sticks around all year, b.) they miss 0 games and play 20+ minutes per night anyways and c.) it only hampers performance against good teams.

Which leaves us with circumstances. What's different between this season and last? Linemates and competition.

Let's see who Iginla played with during 07/08 (via this site):



Now, from this season:



Let's look at the relative contributions of each unit at ES as well.

O7/08:



08/09:



By "frequency" I assume the site means "minutes", so let's standardize each unit's production so we can compare apples to apples here. I'll just apply the typical /60 correction we're all used to. Also, it looks like the production is just a "goal/line" type stat, meaning if a trio manages a goal, the site scores that as "1", rather than collecting all the points of the players in question for each event (goals, assists).

07/08:

Iginla/Langkow/Huselius - 0.65 goals/60
Iginla/Conroy/Tanguay - 0.92 goals/60
Iginla/Langkow/Tanguay - 0.99 goals/60

08/09:

Iginla/Conroy/Cammalleri - 0.58 goals/60
Iginla/Lombardi/Cammalleri - 0.57 goals/60
Iginla/Langkow/Bertuzzi - 0.34 goals/60

(Other combos are sullied by low sample sizes.)

As you can see, the lowest performing unit featuring Jarome in 07/08 outperforms the best one so far this year. And it's not like the club itself has taken a monumental step back in terms of scoring overall: with 108 ES goals, the Flames currently sit 6th in the league. Last year, they were 12th with 145 in 82 games.

Causes -

Difference in competition:

Iginla played behind Conroy and Tanguay a lot last year in terms of taking on the big guns. This season, that responsibility has mostly fallen on Jarome, although Keenan has been mixing things up a lot recently without much change in the outcome. Also, Iginla tended to face the big boys in 07/08 whenever Tanguay was on his line - and it just so happens that the combinations featuring those two players above are the best ES scoring ones in the analysis. So...

Linemates:

All arrows point to a reduction in quality of linemates playing a significant part in the variance in Iginla's output from one year to the next. Lots of kudos have been afforded to Cammalleri so far, except he's done a lot of his damage on the PP. Also, some muted acclaim has been heard for Bertuzzi in the media and such, but I think he just plain sucks. Neither of these guys are Tanguay - hell, I'd argue neither of them are Huselius at ES - especially not in terms of puck distribution in the offensive end of the rink.

Implications:

- Keenan probably owes both Tanguay and Huselius apologies, as does a portion of the Flames fanship. Both guys weren't crash-and-bangers and both could go through periods of frustrating ineffectiveness, but both were also excellent compliments to the captain (and probably better at 5on5 play than a lot of people - the taciturn coach included - gave them credit for).

- If Sutter wants to get Iginla going and seriously challenge the better teams in the league this post-season, he'll need to get Iginla some support in the top-6. Preferrably someone with good vision and an ability to move the puck into soft areas of the ice. This would probably also help the currently floundering power play as well. If not, Keenan will have to find a way to shelter Iginla a lot more.

- The answer to Iginla's struggles is certainly NOT playing him with Bertuzzi and Langkow. That's been the most ineffective trioin terms of output.

Im open for debate, but Im not sure how any other conclusion is possible at this time. Hell, we all some this coming, but it's fairly jarring to witness. If accurate, this look should also influence Sutter's decision making this summer as he wades through the league's UFA pool.

Also - thank you, lord, for Moss, Bourque, Glencross and the steps forward by Nystrom, Boyd and Lombardi.

Gamday - Flames at Ducks

I wouldn't be confident heading into this game if it wasn't for the way the Flames demolished the Habs. Now, the swagger is back. The big guns are still firing blanks, but the Flames depth is just so darn inpressive these days. While Bert and Iggy were struggling to get things done on the PP, Glencross, Moss, Lombardi and company pretty much demolished their competition at ES. Imagine if Jarome could get back on the horse.

Ducks tonight and they're fighting to keep their heads above the feeding frenzy that is 8th in the conference. They're kinda what Calgary was last year: grossly top heavy with a few heavy lifters dragging the rest of the team along. After Perry and Getzlaf (who are terrific) there's not much there. Bobby Ryan looks like a keeper and is doing well from the second line, but that's about it. The checking unit isn't much without Pahlsson and Andrew Ebbett is suddenly their #2 center. Who? Exactly. As for Selanne, the slow-down has finally occurred: guy can't get it done at ES anymore.

Ducks can do damage if the #1 line isn't contained, but their other lines can be exploited. If Calgary's depth shows up like it did against Montreal, they should be able to take this one.

Predicition - Flames 3, Ducks 2. Iginla, Lombardi and Giordano for Calgary. Getzlaf and Pronger for Anaheim.

Go Flames.

Keeping Bouwmeester would be a mistake

Lyle Richardson reports via the hockey news that the Florida Panthers are thinking about keeping Jay Bouwmeester for their run at a play-off berth.

That seems to make sense I guess. Bouwmeester is a key component to the club and the Panthers are within striking distance of the post season for the first time since Y2K. Im sure the fanbase could use some good news and the org could use the income.

Problem being, it's probably the wrong move.

We know that Bouwmeester is fleeing for greener pastures come July. That has been as obvious as the ugly on Amy Winehouse since he signed his one-year extension as a RFA this past summer. Keeping Jay-Bo past the deadline = nothing in return = poor asset management.

On the other hand, a player with his abilities and pedigree could land Florida an extremely attractive package of players and draft picks if prior trade deadline rentals are anything go by. Especially attractive if "zilch" is the alternative.

And let's be clear on this: Florida needs an infusion of talent and futures pretty badly. Play-off aspirations or not, they are still a lousy hockey team. Their top scoring forward might end up with 60 points by the end of the year. Nathan Horton is a total bust as a Jokinen fill-in (and I don't consider those big shoes to fill). And, as you can see by the link, they have been grossly out-played over the course of the year at ES. The lone factor holding the Panthers in the race is that unsustainable .933 ES SV%. Should that uncanny number continue for the rest of the season and squeeze the cats into the play-offs, I have no doubt they'd be swept aside in short order by whoever they'd end up facing in the first round. And I DO doubt that SV% sticks around to make them look like a moderately okay-club next season.

No, if Martin is at all interested in making his team a winner in the long-run, then he'll press for the best package possible for Jay-Bo come March. The kid is having himself a good year, so the offers should be generous. If you want to see what selling the future short for a brief play-off appearance looks like, on the other hand, take a gander at the beleaguered Don Waddell and his pitiable creation up in Atlanta.

Habs Gameday linkage

Some thoughts and such before the game tonight:

- The Canadiens have a decent record, but I don't really think much of them quite frankly. Elaboration here. I'll be fairly annoyed if the Flames lose this evening.

- The Blues extended Andy McDonald recently. There goes a potential rental.

- More rumors: the venerable Al Strachan recently claimed that the Flames might be interested in Ray Emery. If it were anyone besides Strachan (excepting Eklund the fraud), I might actually be worried.

- What do the Flames skaters have against Curtis McelHinney? If they aren't passing to opposition players in the slot or sending them in on break-aways, they're busy not scoring at the other end. The guy is cursed.

- No more Adam Pardy on the second pairing please. The kid has done really well so far this season, but he looks like he's in over his head to me. Also, Phaneuf certainly isn't the guy to carry a struggling rookie partner right now.

- Random galling trivia: native Calgarian Mike Green has 19 goals and 46 points in 41 games this year. He was chosen 29th overall by WAS in 2004 - the same year the Flames took Kris Chucko with the 24th selection. Chucko has yet to score 19 goals in the AHL - though he might actually make it in this, his 3rd year as a pro. Yay!

- Alex Tanguay has missed nearly 20 games and is still 6th on the Canadiens in scoring. In fact, he has 4 more points than former 29 goal guy Tomas Plekanec. Ouch.

- Finally, a question: are Jarome Iginla's struggles an artifact of circumstance (linemates, quality of opposition) or is this just an "off" year?

UPDATED to add that Im back on the score liveblog tonight. I assume it'll be fairly lively, given the amount Habs fans far and wide.

Gameday - Flames vs Ducks

Nothing much to say today that hasn't been covered elsewhere. Visit FlamesNation and Battle of Alberta for various thoughts. I wont be spending money to watch the game this afternoon, so I wont be offering my snide remarks anywhere around the web either (not until the game is over at least). I'll say this: if the club plays like it has the last few games, they'll lose. The Ducks aren't world-beaters anymore, but they do have enough nice players (Getzlaf, Perry, Selanne, Ryan, Pronger and Nierdermayer) that they will punish a lackluster effort.

Prediction - I think the slide continues. 4-3 Ducks, with Perry, Ryan (2), Pronger for Anaheim and Langkow, Moss and Regehr for Calgary.

Kryptonite

Jarome Iginla has played 4 games against the Hawks this year, managed zero goals, three assists...and a ghastly -9 rating. That's arguably the worst stats line for the captain versus any team in the league. Those terrible looking figures got me thinking back to something I noticed earlier in the year: Iginla seemed to be beating up on the lesser clubs (Nashville, Phoenix) but disappearing against the better opposition (Detroit, etc.). Luckily, CBS has those situational stats, which I've parsed into "strong" and "weak" to give us an indication if the perceived split in his performance is real or imagined:

click to enlarge

As you can see, the difference is real and startling: In 21 games against the relatively stronger teams, Iginla has just one goal, 18 points and is a putrid -17. His PPG pace is 0.86, he averages 2.95 shots on net and his SH% is .02!

In stark contrast, Jarome has made hay against the weaker-thans all year: 19 goals, 40 points, +16 and a PPG rate of 1.33, 3.93 shots/game and a SH% of 0.16.

One can quibble with my assignment of certain teams to certain conditions here, but I think I've caught the meat of the issue. Naturally, we can realistically expect a drop of just about anyone's stats in this kind of split, but...there's no way it should be such a steep drop-off, especially for a player of Iginla's caliber and pay-scale. I mean, ostensibly the reason to retain and pay a player like Jarome a huge chunk of dough is so that the team can compete with the other good teams in the league. Unfortunately, the captain has failed utterly in that assignment this year - so much so that I'm struggling to get my head around it still.

Causes? Fears? Does this make anyone wish for a better center at the deadline? I dont know what's going on here, but, whatever the cause, Iginla has to be better going forward. Calgary can't hope to do much in the play-offs if #12 continues to be little more than a detriment against the better teams in the league; there isn't any weak sisters in the post season, afterall.